Less Like Zimbabwe, More Like Japan

Noah Smith links to an article about the dire finances of Japan over at The Atlantic, then follows with this:

This prophecy is hardly unique; I have beaten this drum myself. If Japan doesn't change course, it will have a major crisis within the next decade.

If. But what people need to understand is, the Japanese government does have the power to avert a crisis. It is not inevitable.

There is one way that the crisis can definitely be averted: Raise taxes. Japan's fiscal woes can be boiled down to one sentence: Japan has European levels social spending and European levels of aging with American levels of taxation. But this could change; if Japan raised taxes to European levels, crisis would be instantly averted. According to analyses I've seen, this would require raising Japan's taxes from their current level of 32.5% of GDP to somewhere between 40% and 50% of GDP. That's comparable to France or Sweden. Painful, but not impossible.

Now for the rumor (rumor always being a large component in Western analyses of Japan). My sources at the Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance tell me that domestic Japanese investors are betting that, after all the grumbling and fighting and ending of political careers, Japan's government will suck it up and raise taxes. This, my shadowy sources say, is why pension funds are still willing to put the Japanese people's money into JGBs.

But this story is not really outlandish. It's similar to what we're observing in America right now. U.S. borrowing is at all-time highs, but demand for Treasuries shows no sign of flagging, and most of that demand - more than in the past - is from domestic U.S. investors. Yes, we have shown a reluctance to raise taxes - witness the apocalyptic debt ceiling fight from last year. But if the public really thought the U.S. government was willing to default, domestic Treasury buyers would be heading for the exits. That they are not heading for the exits probably indicates that they believe that when push comes to shove, the U.S. government will suck it up and raise taxes. There are signs that the Republicans are quietly recognizing the necessity of this. At this point, it's just a fight between Democrats and Republicans to see who takes the fall for raising taxes - that's what the "fiscal cliff" is really all about.

Like he points out, the U.S. could straighten up its finances very quickly by returning to 80s level tax rates, taking on the ridiculous mess Republicans call "the best health care system in the world," ending stupid unnecessary wars and tweaking Social Security (maybe by raising the cap on wages subject to taxation).  But half of our politicans have sworn off raising taxes or doing anything that makes a lick of fucking sense.  Eventually these idiots will be sent packing, but only when the pain really sets in in flyover country, and the portion of the 47% in rural areas finds out that the term doesn't only apply to brown people.  I wish there was a quicker and simpler way to fix things, but I'm not seeing it.