Showing posts with label Things I Don't Understand. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Things I Don't Understand. Show all posts

Sunday, January 27, 2019

End of January Links

More interesting stories from the previous week or so:

The Fight Over the Future of Football Has Become a Battle for California’s Soul - The Ringer

20 old Cleveland Rams photos to remind you L.A.'s Super Bowl-bound franchise began here - The Plain Dealer

Brianna Decker Will Get Her Prize Money After All, Just Not From The NHL [Update] - Deadspin

James Harden’s Transcendent Step-Back - The New Yorker 

Colorado a hotbed for North American yak ranching – Denver Post 

The 500-Year-Long Science Experiment - The Atlantic 

Particle physics may have reached the end of the line - Backreaction 

No One Is Prepared for Hagfish Slime - The Atlantic  

“Venture capital money kills more businesses than it helps,” says Basecamp CEO Jason Fried - Recode

How a retired couple found lottery odds in their favor - 60 Minutes.  Also featured here.

Chicago billionaire Ken Griffin just bought the most expensive U.S. home ever: A $238 million New York penthouse - Chicago Tribune and Daniel Snyder’s new $100 million purchase is the first superyacht with a certified Imax movie theater - Washington Post.  I don't think a higher top tax bracket would hurt anything.  It beats the guillotine.

Advances in weather prediction - Science.  "But, as the American Meteorological Society celebrates its 100th anniversary, the improvement in forecasting stands out. Modern 72-hour predictions of hurricane tracks are more accurate than 24-hour forecasts were 40 years ago (see the figure), giving sufficient time for evacuations and other preparations that save lives and property." It amazes me how accurate rainfall forecasts can be, with the timing of the beginning of the storm down to the hour.





Thursday, February 22, 2018

The Physics of Curling

The New Yorker explains that physicists aren't really sure why curling stones curl in the way they do.  There are multiple theories:
In June, 2013, Nyberg and his colleagues made that argument in an equation-laden paper in the journal Tribology Letters (“tribology” being the fancy word for “friction science”). Not long before, in the journal Wear, they had proposed a model of their own, which became known as scratch-guiding theory. Using images from an electron microscope, the researchers showed that, as a curling stone slides along, it leaves fine scratches on the ice in the direction of rotation. The scratches are laid down by the front edge of the running band, but when the back edge encounters them it has a tendency to follow them, causing the stone to curl in the direction of rotation. In follow-up experiments, Nyberg’s group found that, by scratching the ice themselves in various ways, they could alter the trajectory of sliding stones, even ones that weren’t rotating. In one setup, they created a lane in which the ice was scratched in one direction and then, farther on, in the other direction. Then they slid a stone down the lane and watched as it curled, first one way and then the other.
“All of this added up to a mechanism that we felt was reasonable,” Nyberg said. He feels further vindicated by a controversy that broke out a couple of years ago: curlers were using new brooms that scratched the ice rather than merely warming it, enabling them to control the curl like never before. The “Frankenbrooms” have since been banned by the World Curling Federation. “I don’t think they’d read our papers, though,” Nyberg said.
One person who did read Nyberg’s papers was Shegelski, and in January, 2016, he wrote a comment piece in Tribology Letters that called the dismissal of asymmetrical-friction models “inappropriate.” Nyberg and his colleagues soon replied, reiterating their earlier points. When I spoke with Shegelski, he noted that, while scratch-guiding theory is intriguing, the theorists haven’t attempted to demonstrate that the mechanism can generate a metre-wide curl, much less explain why the curl is the same regardless of the rotation rate. “The fact is, in a theory, you need to have quantitative results, and there aren’t any,” he said.
Recently, Shegelski teamed up with Edward Lozowski, a physicist and atmospheric scientist at the University of Alberta, to reconsider the curling conundrum. Some years earlier, Lozowski had published papers on the science of bobsledding and speed skating. “Ed is just a wizard at the physics of ice,” Shegelski told me. Together, the two men developed an improved explanation, which they unveiled in the latest issue of Cold Regions Science and Technology. They call it the pivot-slide model. Lozowski, whom I spoke to over Skype, explained it to me by holding up a hair comb and running his finger slowly across the teeth. Notice, he said, that his fingertip adheres to each tooth long enough to bend it, until the elastic force becomes large enough that the tooth breaks free and snaps back into place—that’s stick-slip friction. The same force will cause a circular saw, when it binds, to jump up and try to pivot around the obstacle. That’s what’s happening with a curling stone, he said.
“Every time the running band encounters a pebble, it catches on it,” Lozowski explained. “And, because ice is elastic, the pebble is deflected, then snaps back, and the rock moves on, pivoting during the deflection.” The pebbles and the pivots are small but they are many, and Lozowski and Shegelski calculated that the net result is enough to curl the stone by a metre. They emphasized that there is still a lot of research to be done—making models of the curling ice, quantifying the number of pebbles per unit area. “It could be all wrong,” Lozowski said. “But whether it’s right or not, at least it’s testable.” Nyberg, for one, is unpersuaded. “To be honest, I don’t really understand what they’re getting at,” he said.
That's a lot of complex theory about sliding rocks on ice, but they are pretty fancy rocks, and it isn't just your average ice, so I guess that part of it makes sense to me.  Not much of the rest does.  I would probably just stick to drinking beer and sliding rocks and saying, wow, look how much that curved.

Saturday, November 4, 2017

Sabotaging U.S.D.A.



Michael Lewis covers the Trump Administration's (and overall GOP's) hostile takeover of the federal government by focusing on the Cabinet Department that has the largest impact on the rural voters who foisted these clowns on the rest of the country.  One of the main points of the article is that most people don't have any idea what U.S.D.A. does:
One day in his new job he was handed the budget for the Department of Agriculture. “I was like, Oh yeah, the U.S.D.A.—they give money to farmers to grow stuff.” For the first time he looked closely at what this arm of the United States government actually does. Its very name is seriously misleading—most of what it does has little to do with agriculture. It runs 193 million acres of national forest and grasslands, for instance. It is charged with inspecting almost all the animals people eat, including the nine billion birds a year. Buried inside it is a massive science program; a bank with $220 billion in assets; plus a large fleet of aircraft for firefighting. It monitors catfish farms. It maintains a shooting range inside its D.C. headquarters. It keeps an apiary on its roof, to study bee-colony collapse.
A small fraction of its massive annual budget ($164 billion in 2016) was actually spent on farmers, but it financed and managed all these programs in rural America—including the free school lunch for kids living near the poverty line. “I’m sitting there looking at this,” said Ali. “The U.S.D.A. had subsidized the apartment my family had lived in. The hospital we used. The fire department. The town’s water. The electricity. It had paid for the food I had eaten.
 And a little more along that thread:
There’s a drinking game played by people who have worked at the Department of Agriculture: Does the U.S.D.A. do it? Someone names an odd function of government (say, shooting fireworks at Canada geese that flock too near airport runways) and someone else has to guess if the U.S.D.A. does it. (In this case, it does.) Even people who have worked at U.S.D.A. for years wind up having to chug. So it’s no use pretending that I can actually explain to you everything the place does.
Lewis ends up focusing on several areas where Trump will likely do the most damage.  The folks who used to be at U.S.D.A he talks to come up with food aid for the poor, scientific research (especially related to climate change), food safety and rural development.  I think they are correct in that assessment.  Here are a couple of the most enlightening quotes from these sections:
“The food-stamps program,” he says, instantly, when I ask him for his biggest concern. The Trump budget had proposed cutting food stamps by more than 25 percent over the next 10 years and more or less abandoning the notion that the country should provide some minimum level of nutrition to its citizens. The Trump budget was just an opening bid and unlikely to become policy, at least not right away, because Congress could always fight it. But it signaled an intention and, perhaps, a shift in public attitudes. “Why is it that people channel so many of their hang-ups about people who are poor or unsuccessful into the food-stamps program?” asks Concannon as we settle into our chairs, then answers his own question. “No one really knows when you go to the doctor and the government is paying. But people see you with this card or coupon and react. People would say to me, ‘I saw someone buying butter with food stamps.’ And I would say, ‘Well, yes.’”...As the head of Oregon’s nutrition programs he learned that the country’s willingness to feed people who are hungry does not mean that hungry people are always fed. The federal government makes the benefits available, but then leaves it to states to administer them. “Where you live in this country makes a huge difference if you are poor,” says Concannon. “And it’s not just the weather. You have states with these 60- or 70-page documents people have to fill out to get benefits. Poor people are easy to wear down.” Georgia was usually a problem. Texas too. “If they ran any of their football teams the way they ran their food program, they’d fire the coach,” said Concannon. A Wyoming legislator, proud of how badly he had gummed up the state’s nutrition programs, told him, “We pride ourselves on doing the minimum required by the federal government.” An Arizona congressman proposed that the card used by people receiving food-stamp benefits be made prison orange, conferring not just nutrition but shame. In 2016, after several counties in North Carolina suffered severe flooding, the state tried to distribute federal disaster-relief food-benefit cards on the day of the presidential election, to give poor people a choice between eating and voting. In Kansas, Concannon had explained to an executive who oversaw the state’s food-stamp program how he had made it easier for people in Oregon who were going hungry to access their program. “He said, ‘Jeez, if we did that we’d have more people coming in the door.’ And I said, ‘Yeah, but isn’t that the idea?’”
This gets at the heart of the crazy experiment that is federal government in these United States.  Just like with the Affordable Care Act, and throughout our history with slavery, Jim Crow, segregation, the New Deal and environmental and safety regulations, state and local governments can actively oppose and intentionally undermine the best efforts of the federal government  to achieve the lofty goals set by the founding documents of the nation.  Promoting the general welfare is often not what states, especially in the American South are trying to do.  Do you know which states are seeing some of the worst financial strains on rural hospitals?  Well, Georgia and Texas are two of them.  And this article gets at one of the strangest divides in American politics-that rural voters whose communities and infrastructure are most dependent on federal spending are most hostile to that federal government.  To that point:
By the time she left the little box marked “Rural Development,” Lillian Salerno had spent the better part of five years inside it. The box’s function was simple: to channel low-interest-rate loans, along with a few grants, mainly to towns with fewer than 50,000 people in them. Her department ran the $220 billion bank that serviced the poorest of the poor in rural America: in the Deep South, and in the tribal lands, and in the communities, called colonias, along the U.S.-Mexico border. “Some of the communities in the South, the only checks going in are government checks,” she said. And yet, amazingly, they nearly always repaid their loans....
As the U.S.D.A.’s loans were usually made through local banks, the people on the receiving end of them were often unaware of where the money was coming from. There were many stories very like the one Tom Vilsack told, about a loan they had made, in Minnesota, to a government-shade-throwing, Fox News-watching, small-town businessman. The bank held a ceremony and the guy wound up being interviewed by the local paper. “He’s telling the reporter how proud he is to have done it on his own,” said Vilsack. “The U.S.D.A. person goes to introduce herself, and he says, ‘So who are you?’ She says, ‘I’m the U.S.D.A. person.’ He asks, ‘What are you doing here?’ She says, ‘Well, sir, we supplied the money you are announcing.’ He was white as a sheet.”
Salerno saw this sort of thing all the time. “We’d have this check,” said Salerno. “We’d blow it up and try to have a picture taken with it. It said, UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT, in great big letters. That was something that Vilsack wanted—to be right out in front so people knew the federal government had helped them. In the red southern states the mayor sometimes would say, ‘Can you not mention that the government gave this?’” Even when it was saving lives, or preserving communities, it remained oddly invisible. “It’s just a misunderstanding of the system,” said Salerno. “We don’t teach people what government actually does.”
I enjoy listening patiently to farmers bitch about how much money poor people are given by the government and then asking them how many poor people they think have been given more money by the government than they themselves have been given.  Surprisingly, they often think most poor people do, which is laughable.  However important all the economic damage the Trump and GOP clowns can do to poor people and rural areas, the threat to important scientific research is the most dangerous, because it is the hardest to recognize by everyday people.  When the funding for the water system doesn't come through or when the folks you go to church with are having to get food from the church food pantry, you tend to notice, and changes can be made.  But when research into climate change or contagious disease isn't getting done, we won't find out until it is too late:
We don’t really celebrate the accomplishments of government employees. They exist in our society to take the blame. But if anyone ever paid attention they would note that Woteki’s department, among other achievements, had suppressed the potentially catastrophic 2015 outbreak of bird flu. They’d created, very quickly, a fast new test for the disease that enabled them to cull the sick chickens from the healthy ones. Because of their work the poultry industry was forced to kill only tens of millions of birds, instead of hundreds of millions. In the early 1990s, the U.S.D.A. had also dealt with the outbreak of ring-spot virus in papaya trees, when the papaya industry in Hawaii faced ruin and extinction. Inside the little box marked “Science,” the U.S.D.A. helped genetically engineer a papaya tree that was resistant to ring-spot virus....
His (Sam Clovis, who has since withdrawn from consideration) appointment as the U.S.D.A.’s chief scientist felt like a practical joke to those who had worked there: this was the place that, back in the early 1940s, had taken Alexander Fleming’s findings and effectively invented penicillin. It had triggered the antibiotics revolution. It had coped with endless blights and outbreaks. The consequences of the science it funded—or did not fund—was mind-boggling. The person Clovis was replacing had taught at universities, worked in the White House, and, along the way, been inducted into the National Academy of Sciences....
 In recent years, much of the department’s research has dealt with the effects of climate change. The head of science directs nearly $3 billion in grants each year. Woteki directed the science that leads to nutritional standards for schoolchildren. She set research priorities. Hers had been food security; domestic and global nutrition; safety of the food supply; and figuring out how best to convert plants into fuel. “All of that has to be done in the face of a changing climate,” said Woteki. “It’s all climate change.” It might sound silly that the U.S.D.A. funds a project that seeks to improve the ability of sheep to graze at high altitudes—until you realize that this may one day be the only place sheep will be able to graze. “We’re going to become even more reliant on the efficiencies that come from the investment in science,” she said. One-quarter of the arable land in the world is already degraded, either by overfarming or overgrazing. “Changing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will force changes in the way crops are grown and livestock are raised,” she said. “The changing climate brings new risks of food-borne disease. Even the pathogens are influenced by temperature and humidity.”
If the Trump administration were to pollute the scientific inquiry at the U.S.D.A. with politics, scientific inquiry would effectively cease.
The Trump Administration and Republican control of the federal government is going to do a lot of damage to the United States, and rural areas, while most responsible for putting them in charge, are going to be hurt the worst.  Unfortunately, the damage done to scientific research, both at U.S.D.A. and in other areas of the federal government, are going to negatively impact all of humanity.  This should be the first thing you should complain to your Congressperson about.

Monday, July 3, 2017

Hot Dog Eating Record

On a lighter note, but no less a sign of American dysfunction, FiveThirtyEight gives us this:


Idiots At The Gates - The Future of the United States

I recommend this New Yorker article on the recently concluded session of the Texas legislature.  The second-most populous state in the union is almost under the control of complete morons.  Only a few somewhat sensible elected officials prevent them from riding roughshod over reason and logic.  As I sit here on the eve of Independence Day and contemplate the immediate and medium-term future, I have little faith that the sensible folks will win out.  I'm pretty sure we will see these cultists foist their ignorant bigotry and witch doctor economics on the rest of the nation, and only after their policies are complete disasters will we be able to vote them out of office.  In the meantime, I am concerned we will end up seeing unacceptable amounts of violence as regular citizens suffer under their doomed-to-fail rule.  I wish I could be more optimistic, but the last two years have rendered that almost non-existent characteristic in my personality extinct.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

House GOP Obamacare Repeal: Robbing From The Sick and Giving To The Rich

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Pre-Planting Links

Yeah, that's right, we haven't started planting, and it's really eating at me.  Anyway, here are some of the interesting stories I've come across since the last time I did enough work to post links:

Club Team Thrives in the Shadow of the Frozen Four - New York Times

The Mariners are Selling Too Many Toasted Grasshoppers - VICE Sports

Mazanec: A Czech Easter Tradition Fighting To Survive In The U.S. - The Salt and Runza: The story of one of Nebraska's most treasured foods - Omaha World-Herald

To feed Upstate NY beer industry, state's barley growers need U.S. aid, Schumer says - Syracuse Poat-Standard

Science Should Not Be a Free Market Endeavor - Slate
 
In Kiron, Iowa, pop. 229, the meaning of a life, a death and another cup of coffee - Washington Post.  This is kind of how I feel every day.

How a gritty Midwestern city is emerging as a model for civility - Christian Science Monitor.  I think this could be done outside of charter schools.

Coal is on the Way Out at Electric Utilities, No Matter What Trump Says - DealBook

Preparing for Chemical Valley - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.  Honestly, how economically depressed does a municipality have to be to wish to be more like Ascension Parish, Louisiana?

Confronting the New Urban Crisis - CityLab.  Personally, I think rural folks are going to make sure city denizens are unable to fix these major problems.

Why Cops Shoot - Tampa Bay Times.  The Times have done a couple of great investigative pieces in the past few years.

Unspeakable Realities Block Universal Coverage In America - Forbes.  How fucked up does the U.S. health care economy have to be to have this article published in goddamn Forbes?

Trump's base turns on him - Politico.  Too little, too late.  Like the patent medicine buyers turning on the salesman after he leaves town.

J.D. Vance, the False Prophet of Blue America - New Republic

A history of global living conditions in 5 charts - Our World In Data.  A much brighter view of the world than what I am normally focusing on.  Actually 6 charts here, but I won't be too picky:



Tuesday, April 11, 2017

The Republican Party, In Summary

Alex Pareene goes over many of the things that make the Republican Party such a dysfunctional governing party:
If you want to understand intra-GOP warfare, the decision-making process of our president, the implosion of the Republican healthcare plan, and the rest of the politics of the Trump era, you don’t need to know about Russian espionage tactics, the state of the white working class, or even the beliefs of the “alt-right.” You pretty much just need to be in semi-regular contact with a white, reasonably comfortable, male retiree. We are now ruled by men who think and act very much like that ordinary man you might know, and if you want to know why they believe so many strange and terrible things, you can basically blame the fact that a large and lucrative industry is dedicated to lying to them....
The bottom-feeding amorality of the sorts of people who sponsored the right-wing press, and the crummy nature of the products and services sold, shows exactly who was supposed to be consuming it: suckers. Or, more specifically, trusting retirees, with a bit of disposable income, and a natural inclination to hate modernity and change—an inclination that could be heightened, radicalized, and exploited....
Rather rapidly, two things happened: First, Republicans realized they’d radicalized their base to a point where nothing they did in power could satisfy their most fervent constituents. Then—in a much more consequential development—a large portion of the Republican Congressional caucus became people who themselves consume garbage conservative media, and nothing else.
That, broadly, explains the dysfunction of the Obama era, post-Tea Party freakout. Congressional Republicans went from people who were able to turn their bullshit-hose on their constituents, in order to rile them up, to people who pointed it directly at themselves, mouths open.
The radicalization of the base actually occurred earlier than Pareene lets on.  He pinpoints it to the election of Obama, but, at least around here, it occurred before that.  I ran for office in 2006 because I saw a Republican party being taken over by know-nothing idiots who believe all kinds of non-factual bullshit.  That year was an election year for all of the statewide executive offices, and when there is a contested Republican primary election for Governor, my county's Republican party holds a County Convention.  As one of the candidates for office, I was invited to speak, or I otherwise wouldn't have attended. The opening address was given by John Boehner, who, at the time, was House Majority Leader (he would become Minority Leader after the 2006 election).  He rolled out a lot of red meat, but over the course of the day, his speech was one of the tamer ones given.  Also present was House Freedom Caucus founder and do-nothing government paycheck thief Jim Jordan, who was leaving the Ohio Senate to run for Congress that year.  I don't think he spoke, but if he did, it was while I was trying to keep from puking due to nerves before my speech.  I gave my speech, which didn't stick to my script, but generally focused on the need for more spending on education.  Not surprisingly, I was the only speaker who didn't mention guns, terrorism or abortion, and the only one who mentioned additional spending for education.

The delegates to the county convention were a mix of elected officials (especially township trustees), party volunteers and business people.  To best illustrate that the base had already been radicalized, all but two of the right-wing loon candidates for statewide office (State Attorney General candidate Betty Montgomery and Mike DeWine, who was the most sane candidate for U.S. Senate present-how times change) was endorsed by the delegates present.  Later that week, I stopped by the county Recorder's office.  He was the county political boss, and he confided to me that he and the other political wheel, the county Prosecutor, were terrified by how radical the base was, and how willing they were to back the morons who professed the greatest faith in the old-time right-wing media bullshit.  Those two were more in it for the power and the ability to hand out patronage, and they were shocked that the majority of the local party was drinking the Kool-Aid.

As Pareene points out, one of the main problems is that the true believers are now a substantial minority in Congress.  The problem is that they were already holding most of the positions at the state level.  Jim Jordan was, at that moment in 2006, making the leap from the state-level stage to the national stage.  My goal was to convince people that they shouldn't be electing morons like Jim Jordan and my opponent to government positions, but instead be electing people who were smart enough to vote for positions outside of the conservative dogma.  Unfortunately, I had a hard time telling my friends and neighbors that they had a lot of stupid political beliefs.  Instead, I tried to work my way around the edges of political discussions, and ended up absorbing a brutal shellacking from a rather dumb incumbent I ran against.

Pareene focuses on Trump's position as the Fox News viewer-in-chief, and how dangerous that is functional government.  The unfortunate thing is that this movement has been building for almost 40 years, and it has taken completely unqualified dumbfuck being elected President of the United States for most folks to realize that stupid people have gradually been filtering up from the grassroots, and now they control almost all the levers of power.  We've had plenty of time to realize what's happening, and the fact that I ran for office is evidence that it was completely obvious back in 2006.  Now we have to reap the whirlwind.

Monday, March 13, 2017

Delayed Time Change Links

If I were in charge, we would never fall back to standard time again.  But I'm not.  However, here are some worthwhile links to take a look at if you haven't already:

Angry Man Cuts President Trump's Balls Off - Deadspin.  The horse was gelded.

Wisconsin and Minnesota Await Latest Round in Ice-Melting Rivalry - New York Times

This small molecule could have a big future in food security - Phys.org.  A GMO corn that would prevent the production of aflatoxin.

Soils could release much more carbon than expected as climate warms - Science Daily.  If we weren't already completely screwed.

McM Inc lists $49.7 million in debts, $10.3 million in assets - AgWeek.  Ouch.

2 of a Farmer’s 3 Children Overdosed. What of the Third — and the Land? - New York Times

High-Tech Greenhouse Has Neighbors Throwing Shade Over Light Pollution - The Salt.  We have folks complaining about the same thing up the highway in Wapakoneta, Ohio.  There they are talking about building 200 acres of greenhouses (there are 20 acres under roof currently), which boggles my mind.  That would be a shit-ton of runoff on a big rain.

Official: Fire still burning hours after Iowa derailment - Des Moines Register.  Ethanol train.

Why Do We Have "Free Trade" For Televisions, But Not For Corn - JSTOR Daily

Caught Dead - The Ringer.  On fishing bluefin tuna to extinction for ridiculously priced sushi.

Donald Trump and the mansion that no one wanted. Then came a Russian fertilizer king- McClatchy.  The story is worthwhile just because it revolves around "the Fertilizer (potash) King,"and how stupid rich people can be.
 and how stupid
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article135243694.html#storylink=cpy

Proposed NOAA Budget Cuts Would Jeopardize Essential Tools - Pacific Standard.  Rule by right wing morons sucks.

The quest to crystallize time - Nature and Quantum Leaps - The Economist.  Quantum mechanics is too weird for me.  Also, Quantum Leap was a shitty TV show.

Is It Better to Be Poor in Bangladesh or the Mississippi Delta? and The Steady Destruction of America’s CitiesThe Atlantic

On Labor and Beyond, Trump Is Following Scott Walker's Playbook - Truthout.  I prefer Donald Trump to Scott Walker and Ted Cruz.  They are that bad.

GOP Health Plan Would Hit Rural Areas Hard - Wall Street Journal.  Hoocoodanode?

Republicans and the Constitution - The New Yorker.  Hopefully even Republicans aren't stupid and power-hungry enough to open up this can of worms.

The .300 Hitter Is Going Extinct - Wall Street Journal.  I know the Sabermetrics goons don't put any stock in hitting for average, but I still admire a .300 hitter.


Thursday, November 10, 2016

Some Thoughts on the Election

The election of Donald Trump has been a long time in the making.  Since the oil embargo in 1973, there have been tremendous stresses placed on the U.S. economy.  First, it was dependence on domestically produced petroleum to fuel our economy.  This quickly morphed into an inflationary spiral.  The inflation pressure destroyed or greatly pared down mature manufacturing industries such as steel and the domestic auto industry.  While this was occurring, Ronald Reagan brought anti-union politics to the forefront in the Republican Party.  Throughout the 80s and early 90s, the U.S. economy was guided away from manufacturing and toward finance.  Bill Clinton came in and leveraged what remained of union political strength, along with changing demographics to get elected.  When he finished the push to enact NAFTA, he made it a bipartisan coalition to undermine the manufacturing economy.  Meanwhile, the U.S. economy was supported by massive borrowing in all sectors, corporate, personal and government.  This debt-fueled economy, which continued to shed manufacturing jobs and was governed by a bipartisan coalition that promoted income inequality, hurt manufacturing employment and cut taxes on the wealthy, came crashing down at the end of the Bush presidency.  Obama decided to try to address this with a Republican-based health insurance subsidy plan, new regulations on finance, mild tax increases on the wealthy, and otherwise trying to hew to the bipartisan consensus that had held since the time of Reagan.

Republicans have cynically played on the decline of the white middle class by claiming that environmental regulations and taxes have wrecked the economy while poor people, mainly minorities, have supposedly benefited.  They have conveniently overlooked 100 years of Republican support for free trade and opposition to organized labor.  Meanwhile, Democrats have joined with Republicans to overhaul the tax code to the benefit of the wealthy and abandoned the working class while claiming that only the Republicans favor the rich.  Donald Trump sensed an opportunity to roll up deep ambivalence toward minorities and outright racism amongst white Americans while positioning himself as anti-free trade and pro-manufacturing.  It is an interesting, if massively cynical, position to take.  It has played on a rural-urban divide that has grown under the bipartisan coalition that saw manufacturing decline while national demographics have shifted.  The challenge for Trump is that he will be working with a legislature that is solidly aligned with the Republican party's free trade, anti-labor, anti-tax dogma.  Trump appears to be trying to play to racial animosity while also playing to struggling blue-collar workers and anti-government sentiment, while also repealing the modest reforms to a failing health insurance system which Obama undertook.

Trump's play has highlighted a number of contradictions in our existing political coalitions.  Democrats have increasingly grabbed support from the professional classes in U.S. cities by supporting diversity and secularism, pushing for a strong central government and mouthing support for the working class and unions while doing nothing for them.  Republicans have built a coalition based on white racial resentment, wrapping themselves in religion, championing free trade and tax cuts , attacking government and regulations and destroying unions.  Trump has tried to combine the anti-government policies of the Republican party with the anti-business positions mouthed by Democrats but completely abandoned by the bipartisan coalition, but tied them together with a more vocal racial resentment.

Looking back at the 2016 campaign from the beginning, it appears that the most logical political movement for the times, in a perfect world, would have been Bernie Sanders' campaign.  Sanders combined all of the the economic ideas antithetical to the bipartisan coalition that has reigned for 40 years and led to the hollowing out of the middle class and also fought against the racial resentment of whites toward an increasing diverse population.  Trump, on the other hand grabbed at anti-trade policies while also clinging to the failed tax cut and anti-regulatory and anti-climate change policies of the Republican party, while turning up the racial resentment to 11.  Clinton and the power brokers in the GOP tried to cling to the bipartisan consensus.

Trump is the result of the elites in both parties dividing the lower 80% of the population and giving the gains to the top 20%.  The urban portion of the 20% overwhelmingly supports the Democrats, while the rural portion supports Republicans.  Meanwhile, the urban and rural portions of the 80% are also split between the parties.  I don't see how this division will allow our economic problems to be effectively addressed.  It appears more likely that racial and rural/urban divisions will be made worse, and the illogical combination of policies Trump has supported will lead to further income inequality and unrest.  I'll expand on these ideas more going forward.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Let's Go Tribe

For the first time in my life, I'm an Indians fan.  It's crazy how events can change your outlook on things. 

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Trump and the Rural-Urban Divide



2012 Presidential Results by county

Cracked has a good piece explaining some of what attracts rural voters to Trump:
These are people who come from a long line of folks who took pride in looking after themselves. Where I'm from, you weren't a real man unless you could repair a car, patch a roof, hunt your own meat, and defend your home from an intruder. It was a source of shame to be dependent on anyone -- especially the government. You mowed your own lawn and fixed your own pipes when they leaked, you hauled your own firewood in your own pickup truck. (Mine was a 1994 Ford Ranger! The current owner says it still runs!).....
The rural folk with the Trump signs in their yards say their way of life is dying, and you smirk and say what they really mean is that blacks and gays are finally getting equal rights and they hate it. But I'm telling you, they say their way of life is dying because their way of life is dying. It's not their imagination. No movie about the future portrays it as being full of traditional families, hunters, and coal mines. Well, except for Hunger Games, and that was depicted as an apocalypse.
I can appreciate the do-it-yourself mentality.  I was proud that I used an 8-pound maul to split all the firewood I used to heat my house for 15 years.  I can appreciate the feeling of emptiness one feels as he or she watches all the things one has held dear slowly die (for me, that includes American manufacturing, rural communities, the Catholic Church and the Republican Party).  I can appreciate the resentment toward "the big city."  I just dropped a large sum of money on a piece of land just so the neighboring town can't burn up more farm ground with big shit shacks for Citiots (yes, that is a combination of city and idiot).  However, I just can't understand how anyone can believe that Donald Trump is a trustworthy person, and not a flaming sack of shit. 

As I listened to this story on NPR tonight, I was thinking that it would be better for struggling white folks to notice that their Hispanic neighbors shared many of the same beliefs in family, church and hard work, and that they would each be better off working together to address the inequality and lack of opportunity they each suffered under.  Meanwhile, they are splitting their vote between two ultra-rich asshole crooks who play them off against one another.  I don't know that this is a divide that can be surmounted, but if it is, I better invest my retirement funds in torches and pitchforks. 

Monday, October 17, 2016

Red State Terrorists

I think this should have been a bigger story this weekend:
The three men from Liberal, Kansas, in the southwest part of the state, were targeting a nearby meatpacking town, planning to detonate bombs in an apartment complex where around 120 Somali immigrants reside.
According to the affidavit:
This is a militia group whose members support and espouse sovereign citizen, anti-government, anti-Muslim, and anti-immigrant extremist beliefs.
This comes after an eight-month investigation into the militia group called “The Crusaders.” The FBI even used an informant, who attended their meetings. Mother Jones adds:
Curtis Allen, Gavin Wright, and Patrick Stein allegedly contemplated murder, kidnapping, rape, and arson before settling on a different plan: They would obtain four vehicles, pack them with explosives, and set them off at the four corners of an apartment complex in Garden City, Kansas, that housed a mosque and 120 Somali refugees.
The attack was planned for the day after the election. It is notable that Garden City, Liberal and Dodge City are major packinghouse towns, and that all three are situated in counties that have populations in which non-Hispanic whites are the minority (the three green counties in SW Kansas):

 Hopefully, this plot is a one-of-a-kind incident, but based on the irresponsible rhetoric I hear coming out of this election campaign, I'm afraid that might not be the case in the near-term future.  I sure as hell hope we don't see more of this horrific stupidity.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Health Insurance Ate Your Raise

Ritholtz:

As you can see, real wages have been little changed for more than 46 years, increasing a minuscule 2.7 percent during that period.
Now look at the blue line: this is total compensation. During the same 46-plus years, this rose 61 percent. Total comp includes wages, various worker benefits such as matching 401(k) contributions, health insurance, disability insurance, paid vacation and leave plus any employer-paid taxes. “These benefits are now a substantial part of the cost of an employee – and they appear to be growing,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which compiled the data.
It isn't a stretch to surmise that most employees don't really appreciate how substantial this non-wage compensation is; nor do they realize how much health-care costs, the biggest part of their non-wage compensation, have risen.
Yes, Tea Partier, all of this is because of Obamacare.  Seriously, why in the fuck do people think the U.S. has the world's best health care?  Because we pay so Goddamn much for it?  We need national health care.  If we really wanted to spur the entrepreneurial spirit [buzzword], we'd break the connection between health insurance and employment, and we'd break the connection between health care and health insurance.  That would free people up to take risks, but, unfortunately, in this country that is seen as socialism.