GOP 2016 Race Shaping Up To Be Disaster

Washington Post:

As Republicans look ahead to the 2016 presidential race, they are hoping to avoid the kind of chaotic and protracted nominating battle that dismayed party elders and damaged the eventual candidacy of Mitt Romney.
That, however, could be a hard thing to prevent.
The party is divided and in turmoil, with a civil war raging between its establishment and insurgent factions. For the first time in memory, there is no obvious early favorite — no candidate with wide appeal who has run before, no incumbent president or vice president, no clear establishment pick.
Meanwhile, an enormous number of potential contenders are looking at the race, including, perhaps, a return of virtually everyone who ran in 2012. Come this time next year, 15 or more of them could be traveling the early primary states, jockeying for attention and money.

A large number of candidates wouldn't be too bad if a few of them were relatively sane, but...

The next presidential election is expected to be a testing ground for a new generation of Republican leaders — senators who might include the charismatic Marco Rubio (Fla.), libertarian Rand Paul (Ky.) and tea party gladiator Ted Cruz (Tex.), and much-mentioned governors such as Chris Christie (N.J.), Bobby Jindal (La.), John Kasich (Ohio), Rick Snyder (Mich.), Scott Walker (Wis.) and Mike Pence (Ind.).
Then there is the potential for a parade of formers and also-rans. Former Texas governor Rick Perry is preparing for another race, a do-over after his 2012 debacle. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who took the Iowa caucuses in 2008, has said he is thinking about it, too, as is former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.), who won Iowa in 2012.
Asked whether he has ruled out another run, former House speaker Newt Gingrich — busy these days with a CNN show and selling a new book — was hardly Shermanesque. “Probably,” he replied by e-mail.
Even former pizza magnate Herman Cain, who briefly led the GOP primary polls in late 2011, is keeping the door open.....
Rounding out the field may be a battalion of backbench congressmen, tea party darlings and conservative media stars, including Maryland neurosurgeon Ben Carson, whose fiery speech at the National Prayer Breakfast last year made him a conservative celebrity, and John Bolton, the former U.N. ambassador, who has raised more than $700,000 for his political action committee. Rep. Peter T. King (N.Y.), another hawk on foreign policy, is eyeing a run as well.
Of all those being talked about — or talking themselves up — there is only one who could enter the race and immediately be declared the man to beat.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush has a stature that gives him the luxury of waiting, knowing that he could upend the contest the moment he took the plunge.

I'm sorry, but when Jeb Bush might be the candidate to rescue the party from itself, you are in big, big trouble.  Actually, the problem isn't the candidates so much as the party.  I can guarantee that the party will push once again for tax cuts, which are needed like a hole in the head.  They will push for fewer financial regulations when we need more and better ones.  They will push for war with Iran and U.S. involvement in Syria's civil war.  Looking at the list of the "next generation" of national Republicans, I shudder.  What a collection of tools, jerks and assholes.  Mike Pence?  He's a dim-bulb empty suit that makes Mitch Daniels look like a brilliant leader (he's not).   Ted Cruz? Holy fuck, what a jackass.  When John Kasich looks like the best guy on the list, you need a new list.  I've seen that guy speak without notes.  He's clueless.  And Herman Cain might run again? Kick me in the head, please.

The good news is that we don't have to worry about these clowns for about two years, and that leaves the party time to come to its senses.  The bad news is that they won't.

What's Mitt Doing?

Am I the only person wondering what Mitt Romney is doing today?

Avatar For President

WTF?:

With no political experience and little knowledge of economics, performing arts professor Vladimir Franz was already an unlikely candidate for the Czech Republic presidential election.
The fact that 90 per cent of his body is covered in tattoos makes it even more surprising that not only is he standing for election - he currently stands third in the polls.
One in nine voters are believed to be planning on backing the 53-year-old opera composer and painter in this weekend's presidential elections after a £15,000 election campaign that didn't even include posters.
He's tipped to win around 11 per cent in the first round of votes on Friday and Saturday, which is not enough to go through, but may make him kingmaker.
Leading candidates Jan Fischer and Milos Zeman, both former prime ministers, ought to be keen to benefit from his following if the vote goes to a second round. And Mr Franz, a Professor at Prague's Academy of Performing Arts, is not short of admirers.

Suddenly, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum seem less out of the ordinary.

Tip To Republicans: Don't Be Overtly Racist

Blacks appear to have turned out to vote at a higher rate than whites in the 2012 election.  I like this nugget:

No wonder Republicans were waging a “war on voting,” though they seem to have lost at least the latest battle.
Some hearing this news may attribute the numbers strictly to Barack Obama’s presence on the ballot, and suggest they won’t repeat themselves in future elections without an African-American contestant. But I dunno about that. Elections where African-Americans voted at higher rates than whites may be a brand new possibility at the presidential level, but not so much at the state and local level. I distinctly recall this happening in my home state of Georgia in 1998, producing a big pro-Democratic upset in a governor’s race with no African-American candidate present (significant increases in black turnout also helped Democrats win gubernatorial upsets in Alabama and South Carolina the same year—an entirely unexpected “Dixie Trifecta.”). What did happen in Georgia, however, was a late series of heavy-handed racially-tinged ads by a Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor, run by his consultant, a guy named Ralph Reed, that helped mobilize African-American voters. You know, sorta like the poorly disguised 2012 ads attacking “welfare” and “voter fraud.”
So Republicans hoping for a lower or less lop-sided African-American voter turnout in the future might want to eschew race-baiting, overt or covert

Ralph Reed, what a Christian exemplar.  As for the covert racism, I don't think we'll ever squeeze that out of the Republican party, or the nation in general.

Still In A Bubble

Joe Hagan reports from the downcast post-election National Review cruise: 

That night, Cal Thomas, a USA Today columnist and Fox News contributor, was the host of my table of eight. At an earlier panel, he’d suggested that his audience “starve the beast” of government by refusing to pay income taxes; but now his stage fire had waned, and he looked bored, peering around our table with half-lids, his hound-dog face propped in his hand. I sat next to a retired surgeon from California named Duane, who heralded the Dinesh D’Souza film 2016: Obama’s America as the definitive truth regarding Obama’s anti-Colonialist background, which now portended America’s inevitable slide into socialism. Thomas liked the movie but dismissed its impact on the election, saying it had preached to the converted and had “sourcing problems” besides. But Duane, who has thick glasses and a closely shorn flat-top, was undeterred, insisting it was relevant. “I disagree!” he spat.
This was a phenomenon that was common on the cruise—the conservative pundits and columnists from the National Review attempting to gently disinter their followers from unhelpful conservative propaganda. For people who believe in the truth of works like Dreams From My Real Father, a conspiracy-­theory documentary that argues that Obama’s real father was a communist propagandist who turned Obama into a socialist Manchurian Candidate, this could be difficult work.
As Thomas downed the rest of his drink, Duane said the only way out of the current quagmire is a “revolution,” citing the famous Thomas Jefferson line about watering the tree of liberty with blood from “time to time.”
What kind of revolution did he have in mind?
Duane’s eyes crinkled into a big smile. “You ever heard of guns?”
His wife sat up: “How do you like the veal?”
“It’s awful,” Duane growled, poking at it. “I can’t hardly chew it.”

The whole story is full of anecdotes of out-of-touch old folks grousing about the direction of the country.  Sounds like supper with Grandpa, although I think these people make Grandpa seem pretty fair-minded.  I think it is notable that even the conservative pundits seem to realize that they need to reengage with the rest of society, and quit pretending that Fox News represents reality.

From the Department of WTF?

All Things Considered:

ARI SHAPIRO, BYLINE: At a manufacturing plant in Cincinnati, Mitt Romney was introduced by three women who own small businesses. Each gave a testimonial about the tough times they've experienced under President Obama - starting with the owner of a window company, Laura Derger-Roberts.
LAURA DERGER-ROBERTS: The demand, in our industry, for windows has dropped dramatically over the past four years, as American families don't have the disposable income they once did.
SHAPIRO: Then Kelly Hollis took the mic. She owns a company that sells orange barrels for road construction sites.
KELLY HOLLIS: It's absolutely despicable, the amount of money that I pay in taxes every year. I could employ a large handful of people.
SHAPIRO: Finally, Mitt Romney took the stage, and adopted the mantle that his opponent made so famous four years ago.
MITT ROMNEY: I mean, do you want real, big change in this country? Well, you're going to get it on November 6; you're going to make it happen. We're going to get America on track again.
SHAPIRO: He used that phrase "big change" a dozen times in 20 minutes.

So let me get this straight.  Two small businesswomen speak.  One owns a window company and complains about how bad the housing market is.  I think that market went to shit before Barack Obama became president. The other sells construction barrels and is bitching about how much she pays in taxes.  Does she happen to think that if rich people get tax cuts then the private sector will come in and buy more construction barrels than the government currently does?  Does she realize that you mainly need construction barrels on existing highways that are under construction, and that almost all existing highways are government owned and maintained?  Or is she just one of those businesspeople who is successful in spite of their lack of brains?  Finally, the only change I can see coming from Romney is a change in position from the one he took ten minutes before.  For cripes sake, all he did during the last debate was agree with everything Obama did on foreign policy except for the imaginary apology tour.  And Romney's five point plan is the same one George Bush used to get us into the biggest recession since the Great Depression.  To paraphrase the Republicans about Obama: yes, change, but not for the better. 

What's Newt Doing?

Boston Herald:

Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum abruptly dropped out of the race this afternoon, citing the health of his infant daughter, Bella, in a move that allows former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to clinch the GOP nomination and target President Obama.
“We made the decision over the weekend ... this presidential race is over for me. We will suspend our campaign today,” said Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, appearing with his wife and family in a hastily called press conference in Gettysburg, Pa. His 3-year-old daughter Bella, who has a rare genetic condition called Trisomy 18, was hospitalized this weekend after she had come down with pneumonia.
“We were very concerned about our role being the best parents we possibly could to our children,” said Santorum.
Bella was released from the hospital yesterday and her condition is improving, but the incident played a part in Santorum’s decision, he said.
“Good Friday was a bit of a passion play for us, with Bella,” he said.

Well, it is unfortunate Santorum's daughter has been sick, but overall, her dad had no path to winning the nomination, and he was trending toward a situation where he would lose the next 5 primary votes, including his home state.  Newt Gingrich has even less of a chance than Santorum did, but he doesn't have the decency or the sense to drop out.  And if a member of his family, like his wife became ill, Newt's first instinct would be to get started on an affair and divorce her.

News Flash: Republicans Are Full of It

Minnesota Public Radio, via Ritholtz:

A statistical analysis of 36 years of monthly, inflation-adjusted gasoline prices and U.S. domestic oil production by The Associated Press shows no statistical correlation between how much oil comes out of U.S. wells and the price at the pump. If more domestic oil drilling worked as politicians say, you'd now be paying about $2 a gallon for gasoline. Instead, you're paying the highest prices ever for March.
Political rhetoric about the blame over gas prices and the power to change them - whether Republican claims now or Democrats' charges four years ago - is not supported by cold, hard figures. And that's especially true about oil drilling in the U.S. More oil production in the United States does not mean consistently lower prices at the pump.
Sometimes prices increase as American drilling ramps up. That's what has happened in the past three years. Since February 2009, U.S. oil production has increased 15 percent when seasonally adjusted. Prices in those three years went from $2.07 per gallon to $3.58. It was a case of drilling more and paying much more.
U.S. oil production is back to the same level it was in March 2003, when gas cost $2.10 per gallon when adjusted for inflation. But that's not what prices are now.
That's because oil is a global commodity and U.S. production has only a tiny influence on supply. Factors far beyond the control of a nation or a president dictate the price of gasoline.          

 No kidding, Republicans are full of shit.  I'd have never guessed it.  Maybe if their presidential candidates quit talking about bombing Iran, we'd lose some of that risk premium in the market.  But then, high oil prices might be the only way those clowns might be able to win the presidency.  It sure isn't because they are likable.

Louisiana Primary Voters Unenthused By Choices

LA Times:

For much of a Saturday afternoon with perfect warm and breezy voting weather, the poll workers in the gym at T.H. Harris Middle School had the place to themselves. No more than several voters were in the booths at one time and for long stretches there were none in this suburb on Lake Pontchartrain west of New Orleans.

Nine Republicans were listed on the presidential primary ballot, including Charles "Buddy" Roemer, a former Louisiana governor who has instead opted to run as a third-party candidate, but for voters interviewed on their way out, only the last two mattered: Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. And Santorum mattered to many more than Romney, whose supporters sounded tepid.

But few voters seemed thrilled about their choice in the GOP presidential primary, with some settling on a candidate at the very last minute. And several said they liked Newt Gingrich, but didn't vote for him in the end because they believed he can't win the nomination.

I'm not surprised that Louisiana primary voters aren't enthused by the GOP choices.  Nobody else in the country is either.  I am very surprised that some people like Newt Gingrich.  Really?  The guy is a scumbag.  He makes John Edwards look classy.  Ok, that is an exaggeration, but only a slight one.

Seriously?

Santorum's latest ad:



Obamaville? Really? Is Ahmadinejad supposed to scare me? And I love that Santorum's message guy says the little flash of Obama on the TV screen with Ahmadinejad isn't subliminal messaging. Go here and listen to him deny it.  Seriously, is Obama that scary to people?  I just don't get it.  He doesn't seem very bothersome to me.

Romney Cruises In Illinois

LA Times:

Mitt Romney scored a decisive victory over Rick Santorum in the Illinois primary on Tuesday, tightening his grip on the Republican front-runner’s slot and improving his chances of locking up the nomination by the end of the presidential primary season in June.

Santorum, meantime, suffered a serious setback in his effort to send the GOP battle spilling onto the floor of the nominating convention in late August.

Turnout in the Chicago metro area, where most of the state’s voters live, was said to be light, despite clear skies and record-high temperatures in the mid-80s. But Romney carried the largely suburban collar counties around Chicago by 20 percentage points, according to exit poll data, building a lead that Santorum was unable to overcome in other parts of the state.

What this shows is that Rick Santorum would be a dead man walking in a general election.  I'm somewhat disappointed that we might not have a national referendum on taking away citizens' birth control and porn.  That would have been a very entertaining campaign, and it would have allowed Republicans to embarrass themselves.  I could just hear them, "we're the party of less government involvement in everything but in your sex life."  That would have been good times. 

The Mystery Of Mitt

Louis Menand reviews a new book on Romney:

Everything in Michael Kranish and Scott Helman’s biography “The Real Romney” (HarperCollins) confirms the view that until 2005 Mitt Romney was a liberal Republican cryogenically preserved from the pre-Reagan era. He was a liberal on social issues, such as abortion and gay rights; a champion of government programs, such as universal health care; an anti-protectionist, “open door” internationalist; a private-sector multimillionaire who was also a personal square, completely uninterested in life-style “experimentation”; a reflexively patriotic, flag-pin-in-the-lapel sort of fellow; a wealthy man possessed of the slightly daft notion that although he had been born to privilege, every American has the opportunity (and the wish) to live as he does; a patrician with a deep sense of noblesse oblige. Since 2005, Romney has made himself interesting by getting a lot of people, including those who might vote for him and those who definitely will not, obsessed with whether, and to what extent, and in spite of anything to the contrary he might be saying on the campaign trail, he is still that person.

I can't figure Romney out.  While he appears to be the only sane Republican still running for president, he seems unable to tell the truth and appears to be obsessed with winning the nation's highest office.  I don't trust the guy, and I sure don't blame the tea party and all the other folks I completely disagree with, for likewise not trusting him.  He just comes off as not having a soul.

Chart of the Day

From Calculated Risk:

We're going in the right direction, but we've got a long, long way to go.  For Obama and the Republicans, the main issue will be where are we at as compared to January 2009, and who do the voters blame more for the job losses between then and the bottom.  Unfortunately for the Republicans, I think if things keep improving, the blame will be heaped on Bush, and the Republicans will have to try to win on social issues.  They've done a terrible job so far on that front, and I would expect more fail if social issues become their biggest campaign issue.

Voting Today

Well, the farce known as the Ohio Primary is under way.  I cast my presidential vote for Mr. Crazy Ron Paul, over robot Mitt Romney, jerk Rick Santorum and scumbag Newt Gingrich.  I almost voted for John Huntsman even though he dropped out a couple of months ago.  For Senate, I knew I didn't want to vote for Josh Mandel, and I was pretty sure all the other candidates were just as crazy.  Luckily, there was a write in spot, so I just voted for myself.  I'm sure it won't count, but I know I'm just as qualified as all the other candidates.  I skipped a bunch of uncontested positions and only cast a few more votes.  Overall, it was pretty much a waste of time.

Operation Chaos: Ohio Farmer Edition?

Probably not.  I am a registered Republican because all the local election decisions are made in the Republican primary.  In 2008, I switched over to vote in the Democratic primary for Obama against Clinton (to no avail).  Tuesday I could cast a vote for Santorum or Romney based on who I would consider to be the weaker opponent in the fall, but instead I'll probably cast a vote for Ron Paul.  Why?  As a protest vote.  I think Romney and Santorum are each deeply flawed, and I don't want to support either one, even though I think Romney has a better chance of actually winning the Presidency in the fall.  I'll vote for Paul in spite of his crazy gold bug tendencies.  At least he isn't stampeding toward war with Iran like the three stooges also on the ballot with him.  I have no concern that Paul has any chance to win the nomination, so I don't have any concern that I will regret that vote in the fall.

Rick Santorum And The First Amendment

George Packer:

The outcry over Obama’s policy on health insurance and contraception has almost nothing to do with that part of the First Amendment about the right to free religious practice, which is under no threat in this country. It is all about a modern conservative Kulturkampf that will not accept the other part of the religion clause, which prohibits any official religion.

Santorum, like most conservatives these days, says he is a constitutionalist. Jefferson wrote, and Madison worked to pass, the Commonwealth of Virginia’s Bill for Establishing Religious Freedom, which held that “all men shall be free to profess, and by argument to maintain, their opinions in matters of religion, and that the same shall in no wise diminish, enlarge, or affect their civil capacities.” Jefferson included an even stronger phrase that was eventually struck out by amendment: “the opinions of men are not the object of civil government, nor under its jurisdiction.” Presumably, all of this originalist nonsense makes Rick Santorum heave, gag, vomit, and puke.

What makes me throw up is the story of Hamza Kashgari. It’s a shame that every American doesn’t know his name. He’s a young, slender, philosophical-minded columnist and blogger from Saudi Arabia who, earlier this month, dared to tweet phrases of an imagined conversation with the Prophet Mohammad: “I have loved things about you and I have hated things about you and there is a lot I don’t understand about you…I loved the rebel in you…I will not pray for you.” Within twenty-four hours, more than thirty thousand furious replies had been posted on Twitter. Within a few days, more than twenty thousand people had signed on to a Facebook page called “Saudi People Want Punishment for Hamza Kashgari.” (So much for Arab liberation by social media.) One commenter wrote, “The only choice is for Kashgari to be killed and crucified in order to be a lesson to other secularists.”

Kashgari backed down, apologized profusely, and continued to be attacked. He went into hiding. Clerics and government officials threatened him with execution for blasphemy. He fled to Malaysia, hoping to continue to fly to New Zealand, where he would ask for asylum. But Malaysian officials, behaving against law and decency, had him detained at the airport and sent back to Saudi Arabia, where he was promptly arrested. Since mid-February there’s been no word of Kashgari. The Saudis have said they will put him on trial. What a pity there’s no First Amendment to protect him.

Santorum's position is so misguided, I just don't understand how so many people can vote for him.  He is wrong in so many ways.  Religious liberty is extended to all Americans, regardless of faith.  I don't understand how the same party which is pushing for laws banning Sharia law are also arguing that all employers have a right to eliminate contraceptive coverage for their employees in the company insurance plans.  The nice thing with the Republican strategy is that it ends up undermining the employer-based health insurance system, which is the first step toward single-payer health care.  Republicans are clearly their own worst enemies, and in the battle over the First Amendment, they are walking a very fine line.

Mr. Obvious Headline of the Day

From the NYT website: Romney Says His Gaffes Are Hurting His Campaign.  The actual story headline is Romney Admits Mistakes as Michigan Votes in Crucial Primary.  I liked the first one better.  Honestly, I'm not sure which is worse, how pitiful Mitt Romney is when he tries to come across as a normal human being, or the fact that he may lose to Rick Santorum's crazy Catholic anti-sex hate train.  I mean really, wanting people to go to college is being a snob?  Seriously?

Quote of the Day

From the Dish:

"I used to be a conservative, and I watch these debates and I’m wondering, I don’t think I’ve changed, but it’s a little troubling sometimes when people are appealing to people’s fears and emotion rather than trying to get them to look over the horizon for a broader perspective, and that’s kind of where we are," - Jeb Bush. Joe Klein unpacks the quote.

I find it hard to believe this country would elect another Bush anytime, but is Jeb positioning himself for a run after the great asswhipping of 2012?  It kind of looks like it.

Weekend Update

A few of the highlights:

Rick Santorum Is A Liar Or An Idiot

I'm leaning toward idiot (map of Santorum's imagination should be centered over Williston and not Grand Forks).  Via the Dish, this:

Rick Santorum made an odd comment in North Dakota on Wednesday. Praising the state for its energy production, he warned his audience that its success in the field might lead to terrorist attacks. CNN reports:

Rick Santorum warned a quiet North Dakota audience Wednesday that their state’s booming oil industry positioned the region as a prime target for terrorism.
“Folks, you’ve got energy here. They’re going to bother you. They’ll bother you, because you are a very key and strategic resource for this country,” the Republican presidential candidate said. “No one is safe. No one is safe from asymmetric threats of terrorism.”
Santorum pointed to Iran as the source behind future terrorist attacks, ramping up his rhetoric on a country he frequently discusses on the campaign trail.
“That’s what Iran will be all about unless we stop them from getting that nuclear weapon,” Santorum said.

What is this dumbf*ck thinking?  If Iran is going to target North Dakota for terrorist attacks, they are even stupider than Rick Santorum.  I think it is entirely hilarious that Republicans look like they might nominate this absolutely foolish jackass to run against Obama, and to get summarily destroyed.  Is a very large minority of this country's population really that ignorant?  I'm afraid they might be.