Reality is a bitch
James Fallows has an
excellent cover story in the January/February issue of
The Atlantic on why the most expensive and technologically superior army in the world can't win the wars our politicians send it to fight. You have to read the whole thing, but here are a few highlights:
At the end of World War II, nearly 10 percent of the entire U.S.
population was on active military duty—which meant most able-bodied men
of a certain age (plus the small number of women allowed to serve).
Through the decade after World War II, when so many American families
had at least one member in uniform, political and journalistic
references were admiring but not awestruck. Most Americans were familiar
enough with the military to respect it while being sharply aware of its
shortcomings, as they were with the school system, their religion, and
other important and fallible institutions.
Now the American military is exotic territory to most of the American
public. As a comparison: A handful of Americans live on farms, but
there are many more of them than serve in all branches of the military.
(Well over 4 million people live on the country’s 2.1 million farms. The
U.S. military has about 1.4 million people on active duty and another
850,000 in the reserves.) The other 310 million–plus Americans “honor”
their stalwart farmers, but generally don’t know them. So too with the
military. Many more young Americans will study abroad this year than
will enlist in the military—nearly 300,000 students overseas, versus
well under 200,000 new recruits. As a country, America has been at war
nonstop for the past 13 years. As a public, it has not. A total of about
2.5 million Americans, roughly three-quarters of 1 percent, served in
Iraq or Afghanistan at any point in the post-9/11 years, many of them
more than once....
Ours is the best-equipped
fighting force in history, and it is incomparably the most expensive.
By all measures, today’s professionalized military is also better
trained, motivated, and disciplined than during the draft-army years......
Yet repeatedly this force has been defeated by less modern,
worse-equipped, barely funded foes. Or it has won skirmishes and battles
only to lose or get bogged down in a larger war. Although no one can
agree on an exact figure, our dozen years of war in Iraq, Afghanistan,
and neighboring countries have cost at least $1.5 trillion; Linda J.
Bilmes, of the Harvard Kennedy School, recently estimated that the total
cost could be three to four times that much. Recall that while Congress
was considering whether to authorize the Iraq War, the head of the
White House economic council, Lawrence B. Lindsey, was forced to resign
for telling The Wall Street Journal that the all-in costs might
be as high as $100 billion to $200 billion, or less than the U.S. has
spent on Iraq and Afghanistan in many individual years.
Yet from a strategic perspective, to say nothing of the human cost,
most of these dollars might as well have been burned. “At this point, it
is incontrovertibly evident that the U.S. military failed to achieve
any of its strategic goals in Iraq,” a former military intelligence
officer named Jim Gourley wrote recently for Thomas E. Ricks’s blog,
Best Defense. “Evaluated according to the goals set forth by our
military leadership, the war ended in utter defeat for our forces.” In
13 years of continuous combat under the Authorization for the Use of
Military Force, the longest stretch of warfare in American history, U.S.
forces have achieved one clear strategic success: the raid that killed
Osama bin Laden. Their many other tactical victories, from overthrowing
Saddam Hussein to allying with Sunni tribal leaders to mounting a
“surge” in Iraq, demonstrated great bravery and skill. But they brought
no lasting stability to, nor advance of U.S. interests in, that part of
the world. When ISIS troops overran much
of Iraq last year, the forces that laid down their weapons and fled
before them were members of the same Iraqi national army that U.S.
advisers had so expensively yet ineffectively trained for more than five
years.
There are a lot of things which contribute to our lack of success in the wars we fight: ignorance of other cultures, foolish civilian leadership, yes-man military brass, crooked contractors, an uninterested citizenry which is unwilling to sacrifice, but most significantly, stupid plans for post-war occupation and rebuilding. The people who put forth the idea that we would be welcomed as liberators were either idiots or knaves. We think we can convert others to our way-of-life at gunpoint, when we would never do the same if somebody else tried that here. For some reason, we can't get through our fat heads that people whose family members are killed by our weapons are going to see us as occupiers, and we have neither the time, money or motivation to be British-style imperialists. We've wasted 13 years and at least $1.5 trillion, and all we have to show for it is a few thousand dead Americans, a few dozen thousand dead Iraqis and Afghanis, and several failed states. Even after all that, most of the American public won't even acknowledge that none of this was done to "protect our freedom." We are idiots. Anyway, read the article. It is very good, but it understates how badly we've fucked things up since World War II.
