Well, at least I got the order of the parties right.
Clearly, the final projection was wrong. It under-estimated both the Conservatives and the New Democrats and over-estimated the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois. While I was not alone in making this error, I humbly recognize that of all the projections mine was among the worst.
Of the 308 ridings in the country, ThreeHundredEight.com correctly called 235 of them. That's an accuracy rate of 76.3%, which is absolutely unacceptable. (Note: I had incorrectly calculated the accuracy rating at 71.8% earlier this morning).
However, it was not the seat projection model that failed. The seat projection model actually performed very well - or would have had the popular vote projection model not missed the mark so completely.
That is a very tough gig. Nate Silver looked really good in 2008, but trying to match polling and anticipate how much to weigh each poll by each pollster seems like a really thankless job. Posting it for everyone to see makes it even tougher.
No comments:
Post a Comment