Chart of the Day

Via Early Warning, the EIA projects U.S. oil production:

I don't know if anybody has a handle on the production characteristics of shale oil yet, but I would guess that with rumored well declines of 80% to 90% in a year, it would be extremely difficult to maintain such a minor decline from peak.  I would expect something more like Alaska.  You can only spend so much money (and water) per well.  But time will tell.