I'm just shooting off my mouth right now, but my prediction is that the Supreme Court will strike down DOMA 5-4 or, I think more likely, 6-3, while running for cover and dismissing the Prop 8 case, allowing the lower court ruling to stand. I know, that isn't a really bold prediction, but I just don't see the court getting out ahead of the curve and getting where they'll have to take us in 10, or more likely 15 years. However, the discussion at the beginning of the week highlighted a very interesting set of graphs. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find them. One showed the gradual acceptance of interracial marriage that took decades, while the other showed the dramatic acceptance of gay marriage. I think the long, slow acceptance of interracial marriage, and the realization of how odd it was that it took that long to accept, has played at least a small part in the much more rapid change in opinion on gay marriage. If I find those graphs, I'll post them.
Update: This is interesting.
http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/tv/showtracker/la-et-st-bill-oreilly-gay-marriage-supreme-court-20130327,0,3353948.story
ReplyDeleteWhen even Bill O'Reilly is having mixed thoughts, you know something is happening.
The anti-gay marriage crowd is getting down to the hard-core Christian conservatives who will never change. What I find interesting is, even as John Roberts calls Obama a coward for not refusing to enforce DOMA, the conservative justices look to cowardly to get out ahead of the deadenders and give in to reality.
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