Bumper Crop

USDA is predicting record corn and soybean crops:

Corn Production Up 1 Percent from 2013
Soybean Production Up 16 Percent from 2013
Cotton Production Up 36 Percent from 2013
Winter Wheat Production Up 2 percent from July Forecast
Corn production is forecast at 14.0 billion bushels, up 1 percent from 2013. Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 167.4 bushels per acre, up 8.6 bushels from 2013. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.8 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4 percent from 2013.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels, up 16 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 45.4 bushels per acre, up 2.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 84.1 million acres, unchanged from June but up 11 percent from last year.
All cotton production is forecast at 17.5 million 480-pound bales, up 36 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 820 pounds per harvested acre, down slightly from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 16.9 million 480-pound bales, up 38 percent from 2013. Pima cotton production, forecast at 556,000 bales, is down 12 percent from last year. Producers expect to harvest 10.2 million acres of all cotton, up 36 percent from 2013. This harvest total includes 10.1 million acres of Upland cotton and 175,900 acres of Pima cotton.
All wheat production, at 2.03 billion bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast but down 5 percent from 2013. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 43.9 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 3.3 bushels from last year. Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.40 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the July 1 forecast but down 9 percent from 2013. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 43.1 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from last month but down 4.3 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 32.4 million acres, unchanged from last month but up slightly from last year.
Hard Red Winter production, at 729 million bushels, is up 4 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 466 million bushels, is up 2 percent from the July forecast. White Winter, at 202 million bushels, is down 2 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 11.3 million bushels are Hard White and 190 million bushels are Soft White.

I've talked to a few guys at the fair who just don't believe the crop is out there.  I should be making some bets with them.  I don't think the actual harvest will be significantly lower than predicted.