Tuesday, December 23, 2014

The Future of the Bakken

Ron Patterson has been trying to read the tea leaves in the Bakken based on the first 24 hours production numbers in the Bakken.He's starting to see a trend:
It is unclear, to me anyway, whether the lower production per well is because of downspacing, moving further away from the sweet spots, or both. But it is clearly happening. Newer wells, or at least those with higher permit numbers, are definitely coming in with lower production numbers.
In 2015 we will see the squeeze coming in from two sides, fewer wells being drilled and lower production from those that are being drilled. It is my prediction that the Bakken will peak in 2015. In which month it will peak is hard to guess.
But there is a third squeeze, from another side. The junk bonds that many small shale drillers depend on for their financing are dropping through the floor. That means yields are going through the roof.
I've been pretty wrong, both on production from the shale plays, and on oil futures prices, but I'm positive of one thing, the shale plays will peak, and it will be sooner than optimists think.

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