Slowing Down in the Bakken

This month's North Dakota Oil and Gas Commission report is pretty interesting:

Oct Oil 36,688,971 barrels = 1,183,515 barrels/day
Nov Oil 35,616,174 barrels = 1,187,206 barrels/day (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
1,123,304 barrels per day or 95% from Bakken and ThreeForks
63,902 barrels per day or 5% from legacy conventional pools

Oct Gas 44,334,943 MCF = 1,430,159 MCF/day
Nov Gas 42,759,688 MCF = 1,425,323 MCF/day (preliminary)

Oct Producing Wells = 11,903
Nov Producing Wells = 11,942 (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
8,640 wells or 72% are now unconventional Bakken–Three forks wells
3,302 wells or 28% produce from legacy conventional pools...

Oct Sweet Crude Price = $68.94/barrel
Nov Sweet Crude Price = $60.61/barrel
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $40.74/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $29.25/barrel (lowest since December 2008) (all-time highwas $136.29 7/3/2008)

Oct rig count 191
Nov rig count 188
Dec rig count 181
Today’s rig count is 156 (lowest since Oct 2010)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)...

The drilling rig count dropped 3 from October to November, 7 more from November to December, and has since fallen 25 more from December to today. The number of well completions decreased from 145(final) in October to 39(preliminary) in November. Oil price is by far the biggest driver behind the slow-down. Operators report postponing completion work to avoid high initial oil production at very low prices and achieve NDIC gas capture goals. There were no major precipitation events, but there were 11 days with wind speeds in excess of 35 mph (too high for completion work) and 7 days with temperatures below -10F...

Rig count in the Williston Basin is falling rapidly. Utilization rate for rigs capable of 20,000+ feet is currently about 80%, and for shallow well rigs (7,000 feet or less) about 50%.

It will be interesting to see what the next few months hold for activity in the Bakken.