Thursday, August 18, 2011

Is Gold In A Bubble?

Smart Money on gold (via Ritholtz):
For many experts, of course, this everyman rush to gold is the ultimate contrarian indicator. When hard-core skeptics are converted, so the thinking goes, the market has entered pure bubble territory. In fact, they say it's close to popping: Gold prices fell 2% from their recent high of $1,780 an ounce after the news last week that CME Group, a futures marketplace, is requiring institutional investors to put up more cash as collateral before they can make bets on gold. But those prices have already bounced back, gaining $42 between Monday and Tuesday and settling at a new record of $1,782. "It's very tempting for investors to want to buy things that have gone up recently, but that shouldn't the reason for buying gold," says Gregg S. Fisher, chief investment officer of Gerstein Fisher, a New York based investment advisory firm.
And yet, many gold bugs -- new and old -- remain convinced the precious metal still has new highs to set. Because gold tends to perform well during extended economic downturns or inflationary periods, both still real possibilities in the U.S., some predict gold will continue its upward march this year; it's already up 25% year-to-date. For instance, J.P. Morgan Chase Bank is calling for gold to reach $2,500 an ounce or higher by the end of the year. Adjusted for inflation, that's above the metal's all-time high of $2,400 in 1980.
I'll go with the skeptics.  Gold is in a bubble, but I don't know when it will pop.  If I had to guess, I'd put it at about $2000 or $2100 an ounce.  By that time, people will be predicting $3000 or $4000 an ounce.  I just don't believe the hype that the dollar, and all other currencies are worthless compared to shiny metal which people hoard.  Doesn't seem like a good investment to me.  Honestly, I have purchased gold, and probably won't sell all of it.  But as prices have started moving parabolically, I'm getting awfully tempted to part with it.

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