Are We Dumb Enough To Attack Iran?

James Fallows:

Anyone following the news already knows this, but for the record: it's very good to see the NYT running, on page one and above the fold*, an analysis of the reckless agitation for a preemptive military strike on Iran, and of the risks this talk holds for all involved. Lots of people wrote these analyses, after the fact, about the panicky rush-toward-war mentality that preceded the invasion of Iraq in 2003. It is certainly better to start talking about the problem now, when "hey, wait a minute" thoughts can make a difference.

Peter Beinart, in the Daily Beast, weighs in to the same effect.

I am only in internet range for a moment, so no opportunity to lard this up with references, links, and sub-arguments. Therefore I'll make just this blunt point: this war talk is dangerous, it can lead to "Guns of August" consequences, and it is particularly dangerous to have Republican candidates decide that outdoing one another in warlike talk about Iran is good for them or the country.

I sure as hell hope that people aren't stupid enough to believe all the usual suspects claiming Iran is an existential threat to the United States.  Give me a damn break.  That country would get blown to hell if they ever screwed with Israel, and that would be by the Israelis, we wouldn't even have to do a thing.  The idea that Iran is any threat to us is just plain stupid. 

On a second note, there has been a lot of talk about how high gas prices might hurt Obama's reelection chances.  Republicans have jumped on the bandwagon on this, as anyone who notices their utter stupidity would expect.  The thing is, what's causing the high oil prices?  This, maybe:

The ostensible reason for the climb of crude prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, is growing fear of a military confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil passes.
Other factors driving up prices include last month’s bankruptcy of Petroplus, a big European refiner, and a recent BP refinery fire in Washington state that’s temporarily crimped gasoline supply along the West Coast; gas now costs an average of $4.04 a gallon in California.
While tension over Iran has ratcheted up over the last few months, the price of oil and gasoline has leaped far beyond conventional supply and demand variables. Financial speculators are piling into the market, torquing the Iranian fear factor into ever-higher prices.

And if a Republican is elected, do you expect the likelihood of war with Iran to increase?  I do.  So Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney and that fat guy are all going to campaign on the idea that electing them will lower oil prices, when in fact, electing them will probably (rightfully) make the oil market even more jittery.  WTF?  Are Americans as dumb as we seem?  I'm guessing yes.