Monday, February 13, 2012

Is The Bubble Still Growing?

Bloomberg, via Ritholtz:
Wealthy investors plan to increase their allocations to commodities and private companies while decreasing their cash holdings this year, according to a survey released today.
About 48 percent of respondents said they plan to add to commodities investments during 2012 and 55 percent said they intend to make more direct investments in private companies, according to a survey by the Institute for Private Investors. About 45 percent plan to increase real-estate holdings, said IPI’s survey of its members, who are families with at least $30 million in investable assets.
“It’s part of that whole movement toward actually owning real assets,” Mindy Rosenthal, executive director of IPI, said in a telephone interview. “They’re looking at going back to the old school way of making money.”
Looking at going back to the old school way of making money?  A rentier is a rentier, whether speculating in commodities or in mortgage-back securities.  We're getting closer to the top of the bubble when lots of people are moving in the same direction.  My dad's financial adviser was pointing him toward commodity index funds.  I told him they're a little too late to jump in that market, but I don't know what he decided to do.  Anyway, real assets will also lose a ton of money once the prices have been driven to unsustainable heights.  If we're not to that point already, we're damn close.

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