Bad Signs In China?

chart via Ritholtz.

Satyajit Das:

China also emerged as a large purchaser of commodities. It is now the largest purchaser of iron ore and other nonferrous metals. It is also one of the biggest purchasers of cotton and soybeans.

Between 1990 and 2010, China’s share of world coal consumption increased from 24% to 50%, in part driving a doubling of coal prices. In the same period, China’s share of world oil consumption increased from 3% to 10%, contributing to a 233% increase in oil prices.

Chinese savings and foreign exchange reserves (totalling over $3.2 trillion) were a major source of capital for financing developed countries, especially governments. China exported savings of around $400 billion each year, helping reduce interest rates in the US by as much as 1.00% per annum. Its role as an exporter of capital flows is surprising given China’s average income per capita is around $4,000, well below that of the US and Europe.

Following the GFC, China’s role became even more important. China, together with some of the other BRIC countries such as India and Brazil, contributed a large portion of global growth in 2010 and 2011.

As Western governments ran up large budget deficits in an effort to maintain economic growth, the ability to borrow from China, especially its large foreign exchange reserves, became important. Most recently, the European Union (“EU”) and the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) sought the financial support of China to resolve the European debt crisis.

The country’s increasing importance and foreign praise has led to Chinese hubris. The 30 July 2009 editorial in the English language People’s Daily, an official publication, boasted that China, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (“CCP”), had coped successfully with the financial crisis, earning worldwide attention: “High-level figures from the western political and economic spheres … envy China’s superb performance … as well as “China’s spirit”– the kind of solid, unbreakable “Great Wall” at heart to ward off the financial crisis.”

I would be damn surprised if a bunch of Chinese Communists managed to not blow their own economy up after catching capitalist fever.  The bad part is, if this happens, it's really going to kick farmers in the ass.