Sunday, August 5, 2012

Private Forecasts Lower Yield Expectations

Des Moines Register:
Farm Futures Magazine said Friday that based on a survey of more than 1,900 farmers that this year’s harvest is likely to be no more than 117 bushels per acre, with national production coming in at slightly less than 10 billion bushels.
Another survey by the private forecasting firm Informa put the harvest 10.3 billion bushels, down from its July estimate of 12.49 billion bushels.
Informa cut its yield estimates for the crop to 121 bushels per acre from its previous estimate of 142.5 bushels per acre, according to reports from commodity traders.
Another forecast by FCStone predicted U.S. farmers will harvest 11 billion bushels of corn, with an average yield of 124.3 bushels an acre.
A week ago Doane Agricultural Services said its inspection of Iowa fields indicated a 117 bushel per acre yield, which would be the lowest in the state since the flood year of 1993.
In the last three years, the U.S. Average per bushel yield has been 164 bushels in 2009, 153 bushels in 2010 and 148 bushels last year.
Total corn production in 2011 was 13 billion bushels. The U.S. department of Agriculture forecast at planting time a 2012 crop averaging 166 bushels per acre, with total production of more than 14 billion bushels planted on 96 million acres, the largest since 1937.
I really have no idea what the corn yields are going to be around here, but ours won't be pretty.  We're really going to get a test of how strong the political will is for turning our food supply into energy.  Prices are going to get pretty high, and something's got to give.

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