Is The Commodity Boom Nearly Over?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard thinks commodities bears may be underestimating the short-term demand from China (via nc links):

Chengdu’s planning chief told me the Hukuo feudal system that keep peasants stuck in their villages is being dismantled in Sichuan, opening they way for a fresh wave of migration. She expects her city to grow from 14m to 20m by 2020.
Nor is it clear that the Communist Party is yet ready to wean the country off state credit, top-down planning, and chronic over-investment, an addictive model for Maoist patronage.
China’s Development Research Council knows that the catch-up model launched by Deng Xiaoping in 1978 is no longer fit for purpose as China moves up the technology ladder.
Yet the Party’s 10-year power transition last month seems to have been a victory for hardliners. Key reformers were shut out of the seven-man Standing Committee. The North-Korea trained Zhang Dejiang has tightened his grip, a boon to the state-owned behemoths. It looks as if the Politburo may try to keep the infrastructure blitz going for another cycle, extending it to the 800m or so people of the hinterlands.
This is fatal for China. Such a course risks ensnaring the country in the "middle income trap" over the long-run. But in the short-run -- say another five-year cycle -- it could kindle a fresh burst of uber-growth, with demand cascading through the Asian tigers and the commodity complex.

As he says, we'll soon find out if the new regime cranks the infrastructure spending back up.  If so, things may get crazier in the grain markets.  If not, farmers may be sorely disappointed in the near future.