Will Beef Become a Luxury Item?

The Des Moines Register asks:

Beef prices are expected to increase as much as 10 percent by summer, leading beef producers and sellers to worry that their product might become a luxury.
“We can’t let beef turn into lobster,” said Ed Greiman of Garner, the president of the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association.
Retail beef prices have risen by an average of $1 per pound since 2007. Prices for cattle have jumped by as much as 25 percent in the past two years as the nation’s herd dropped to its lowest level in six decades while foreign export demand boomed...
“The cattle producers are caught between a rock and a hard place,” Sweeney said. “The price of corn is high, so cattle producers can’t afford to keep as many animals. So you have fewer animals and high demand, and that creates high prices.”
Corn prices have averaged $7 per bushel in the past 12 months.
“Beef is in danger of becoming a luxury item,” Sweeney said. “That won’t be good.”

Thank ethanol, amongst other factors.  Actually, beef has been a luxury throughout much of our history.  Here's a quote from the story:

 Ladell Gossen of West Des Moines finished a ground beef patty lunch. “When I was a kid growing up in Rock Rapids, I didn’t have much money. I envied people who ate good beef,” he said. “Now I can afford it, and I eat as much beef as I can.”

Consider a few numbers.  Sows can have 2 litters of pigs a year, with about 10 pigs per litter, and a pig will gain around 1 pound of weight on 3.5 pounds of feed, while cows generally have one calf a year and it takes 7 pounds of feed for 1 pound of weight gain on the calves.  What is going to be cheaper?  We won't even get into chicken arithmetic.  It is pretty clear that beef is already somewhat of a luxury.