Friday, August 16, 2013

Land Price Top?

Possibly.  Des Moines Register:
Farmland values in the Midwest were stable during the second quarter of 2013, marking the first time they have failed to rise in four years, the Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.
Bankers hinted the boom of the past few years may be coming to an end.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said the average dollar value of “good” farmland across Iowa was flat for the April 1 to July 1 period. Despite the quarter, land values in the country’s largest corn- and soybean-producing state have jumped 18 percent since July 1, 2012 — reflecting the strong farm economy and booming demand for productive land.
Similar to Iowa, land prices across other states covered by the Federal Reserve branch have seen sharp gains over the last year, but they posted mixed results during the second quarter. Land values in Indiana and Wisconsin rose 5 percent and 1 percent, respectively, but Illinois and Michigan had small decreases. Overall, the five-state region was unchanged during the second quarter with prices climbing 17 percent from a year ago. The last time farmland prices failed to rise was in the third quarter of 2009.
“While the farmland values on a year-over-year basis still appeared to be soaring, changes in farmland values on a quarterly basis may be presaging shifts in the year-over-year pattern in the latter half of 2013,” said David Oppedahl, a business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. “Survey respondents reinforced this conclusion with their assessments that agricultural land values were likely to be flat in the third quarter of 2013.”
The survey was compiled with input from 211 agricultural bankers, with 86 percent of respondents expecting stable land values through the end of September. One banker cautioned that land values would go down as grain prices fall.
I think that except for some special circumstances, we've seen the peak.  As prices don't get back to where they were, reality is going to set in for guys.  I don't think there will be many $20,000 an acre purchases out in Iowa in the next couple of years.

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