Sunday, February 9, 2014

Private Payrolls versus Public Payrolls

Calculated Risk looks at private employment and public employment through the presidential terms of each White House occupant since Reagan.  First, the private sector employment data:


So contrary to popular belief, the recovery in the private sector has been stronger under Obama than it was under Bush, and most of the jobs created under Bush were created by the housing bubble, in spite of Obama being forced to deal with a much more severe plunge in the economy:

The employment recovery during Mr. G.W. Bush's (red) first term was very sluggish, and private employment was down 841,000 jobs at the end of his first term.   At the end of Mr. Bush's second term, private employment was collapsing, and there were net 462,000 private sector jobs lost during Mr. Bush's two terms. 

Private sector employment increased slightly under President G.H.W. Bush (purple), with 1,510,000 private sector jobs added.

Private sector employment increased by 20,955,000 under President Clinton (light blue) and 14,717,000 under President Reagan (yellow).

There were only 1,998,000 more private sector jobs at the end of Mr. Obama's first term.  One year into Mr. Obama's second term, there are now 4,289,000 more private sector jobs than when he initially took office.
Now to the public sector:


It is clear here that government jobs have disappeared under Obama at a rate never seen before:
The public sector grew during Mr. Reagan's terms (up 1,414,000), during Mr. G.H.W. Bush's term (up 1,127,000), during Mr. Clinton's terms (up 1,934,000), and during Mr. G.W. Bush's terms (up 1,744,000 jobs).

However the public sector has declined significantly since Mr. Obama took office (down 766,000 jobs). These job losses have mostly been at the state and local level, but more recently at the Federal level.  This has been a significant drag on overall employment.
Much of this has been driven by Republican actions at state capitals.You can chalk this up to ridiculous ideology, or to intentional sabotage.  I think it has aspects of both.  But in terms of damage to the middle class and increases to income inequality, these cuts mainly at the state and local level, combined with cuts to income taxes have fueled both.  Republicans took advantage of the damage done by the Great Recession to slash state budgets AND TO CUT TAXES, which made matters worse.  Average folks saw very little in tax savings, while the richest of the rich saved more than what most government employees made in a year.  I mistakenly predicted that Republican policies enacted after their victories in the 2010 elections would cause a double dip recession.  They didn't, but they did cause a massive drag on the economic recovery.  Meanwhile, they eliminated middle class jobs while significantly decreasing what people who are the best off pay to support public services.  The Obama presidency has been defined by Republican policies.  Yet, Republicans point the finger at Obama.  What a fucking joke.

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