Still Talk of Oil Independence

The New York Times looks at the talk of oil independence for North America, and discusses some of the challenges we face in getting there (which we won't).  The main fear cited is that a glut of production depresses prices and causes shale oil to become unprofitable. I think we'd have seen a drop in crude oil price already if that were likely.  I could only see that if China's economy really tanks. I did find these parts interesting:

Perhaps most important, the economics of oil and natural gas extraction on the continent are challenging: Deepwater Gulf of Mexico oil drilling, oil sands extraction and shale drilling are all expensive and require high petroleum prices that are far from assured. Most of the easy-to-drill oil is gone. But should North America produce too much oil too quickly, and exports surge from Iraq (which is already happening) and Iran (should talks with the West over its nuclear program succeed), global oil prices could soften considerably.
There is also the possibility that the pace of shale drilling in places like Argentina, China and Russia, which have so far lagged North America, could take off, producing sizable new sources of oil and gas on the world market. As unlikely as it may seem, a price collapse, like the one that happened to domestically produced natural gas after 2008, is something every oil executive fears.....
The United States has been the jewel of global petroleum in recent years, increasing its oil production by more than 50 percent since 2008, and most energy analysts say they believe the good fortunes are sustainable for at least another decade. Natural gas production has been so plentiful that the price of the commodity has plunged, giving consumers and manufacturing industries a financial break, while gas import terminals are being turned around to export. The country has already replaced almost all imports of high-quality African oil with the booming production of the Texas and North Dakota shale oil fields.
The outlook for energy security would even be better if expectations of increasing Mexican and Canadian supplies came to pass. Talk of energy independence has become conventional wisdom, with the Energy Department reporting that the percentage of imported oil and petroleum products the United States consumes dropped to 40 percent in 2012, from 60 percent in 2005.
But the department warns that while the imported share should drop to 25 percent in 2016, it will rise again, to about 32 percent in 2040, as domestic production from shale fields begins to decline in 2022. Some oil executives say that the government is not optimistic enough and that technological improvements will continue to allow their companies to increase production at a profit. But few think that is a sure thing, and they list a number of concerns, most of which appear to be improbable — but not impossible.....
In September, Royal Dutch Shell announced its intention to sell 100,000 acres it had leased in the Eagle Ford shale field of South Texas because of out-of-control costs. An analyst at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studieshas estimated asset write-downs approaching $35 billion in recent years among 15 of the main operators in the shale gas and oil fields, a tiny percentage of the total investment but a sign that shale field development is sensitive to market shifts and drilling disappointments.
What makes shale drilling particularly challenging is that wells produce most of their oil and gas in the first years of production, requiring more and more drilling in lower-quality zones of the fields.

I just don't trust the optimists who are making tons of money now and projecting it into the future.  I think the most optimistic anybody should be is that the Bakken and Eagle Ford will continue to grow for maybe five or six more years, and then start a slow decline.  Personally, I would bet that it will peak before that.  As the wells begin to decline, you have to maintain the current drilling pace indefinitely to keep production rising, and as you move away from the sweet spots, I think you will see new well production rates decline from the first wells.  But, I'm not a petroleum engineer or geologist, either.  I just anticipate these producers talking their books as they run a pump and dump operation to cash out.