Monday, February 28, 2011

Naked Capitalism Link of the Day

Today's link: Will 'Chindia' Rule the World in 2050, or America After All, at the Telegraph.  From the article:
HSBC’s report also sketches an era of unparalleled prosperity, yet the West does not sink into oblivion. China overtakes the US, but only just, and then loses momentum.
Chimerica, not Chindia, form the G2, towering over all others in global condominium. Americans prosper with a fertility rate of 2.1, high enough to shield them from the sort of demographic collapse closing in on Asia and Europe. Beijing and Shanghai are 1.0, Korea is 1.1, Singapore 1.2, Germany 1.3, Poland 1.3, Italy 1.4 and Russia 1.4.
Americans remain three times richer than the Chinese in 2050. The US economy still outstrips India by two-and-a-half times. This is an entirely different geo-strategic outcome.
My own view is closer to HSBC, perhaps because my anthropological side gives greater weight to the enduring hold of cultural habits, beliefs, and kinship structures, and because of an unwillingness to accept that top-down regimes make good decisions in the end.
I wonder mainly about energy, and the ability to continue to increase consumption.  Overall, the UK has remained near the top in standard of living, even though their time at the top of the world ended almost 100 years ago, and they lost India over 60 years ago, so I wouldn't panic about the threat that the Chinese people will be better off than the US in 2050.

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