Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Give me a break

I seem to detect some ideology in this story at the Wall Street Journal:
Yet as the chaos in North Africa has grown over the past month, investors have largely shunned the dollar and sought shelter elsewhere. They have turned to other traditional islands of stability, buying Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.
What has especially raised eyebrows has been the move by investors to buy euros, a currency traditionally seen as a riskier prospect than the dollar, especially with the euro zone's debt problems still largely unresolved.
Further along:
Some note that Japan's economy also is in the doldrums and the country imports essentially all its oil.
Yet buyers continued to seek out the yen as a safe haven. Investors aren't concerned about Japan's own fiscal problems and loose monetary policy.
Mr. Borthwick at Faros says that focus on oil misses the point of flight-to-quality buying, which is that investors are thinking first and foremost of moving their money somewhere safe where they can be sure they will get it back.
With investors increasingly wary of the ability of the U.S. to solve its fiscal problems and the Fed perceived to be "printing dollars" as part of its quantitative-easing strategy to support the economy, there's less confidence that the U.S. dollar is "safe" in the sense, Mr. Borthwick says.
"It's the knee-jerk reaction that matters," he said. "Nowadays the knee-jerk reaction is buy euros and not to buy dollars. The mindset of buying euros is a complete switch."
I cannot see the Yen or the Euro as being considered more safe than the dollar.  The Japanese have a demographic nightmare and 200% debt to GDP, while the Euro is quite possibly going to disappear because of dissention amongst Euro nations. Neither seems to have lower tax rates than the U.S., where much of the budget deficits could be made up.  I smell politics in the story.

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