A Blast From the Past

Remember back in January 2001 when leaders were concerned that we would pay off too much of the Federal Debt, and we ought to get money back in the hands of the people, who would invest it more wisely than the government?  I know, it seems like a while ago, but here's a graph:

Summary Figure 2. Uncertainty in CBO's Projections of the Total Budget Surplus Under Current Policies (By fiscal year)

SOURCE: Congressional Budget Office.

NOTES: The figure shows the estimated likelihood of alternative projections of the surplus under current policies. The calculations are based on CBO's past track record. The CBO projections described in Chapter 1 fall in the middle of the darkest area. Assuming that policies do not change, the probability is 10 percent that actual surpluses will fall in the darkest area and 90 percent that they will fall within the whole shaded area.

Actual surpluses will of course be affected by legislation enacted during the next 10 years, including decisions about discretionary spending. The effects of future legislation are not included in this figure.

An explanation of how this probability distribution was calculated will appear shortly on CBO's Web site at www.cbo.gov/otherdoc.html

I accidentally stumbled onto the Budget and Economic Outlook 2002-2010, from January 2001.  It hurts to read.  Anyway, I blame Bush, the Republicans and Wall Street crooks.  Actually it is more than just them, but they were fully in charge until January 2007, so they hold most of the blame.  Note the statement Under Current Policies.