Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Once You Hit Bottom...

there's only one way to go:
The 21 metropolitan areas of the Great Lakes region are among the most resilient areas coming out of the recession, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution. Twelve of the region’s metropolitan areas were ranked among the top 40 metros in the U.S., determined by measurements of employment, unemployment, gross metropolitan product and housing prices.
The report, a quarter-by-quarter analysis by Jennifer Bradley and Richard Shearer, also ranks metro areas by how those rates have changed since the onset of the recession, tracking which places are recovering the fastest. In a bit of a surprise, metros with strong ties to auto production have been among the quickest to rebound. Between the second quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011, job growth in manufacturing was at more than 5 percent in Akron, Grand Rapids, Madison, and Toledo. Detroit and Youngstown, the two postertowns of Rust Belt decline, saw manufacturing job growth rates of 10 and 19 percent, respectively.
Seriously, how hard is it to grow manufacturing 19% in one year after a 30 year, say, 70% decline.  If you started 1981 with 30,000 manufacturing jobs, you lost 21,000 jobs, then you gain back 1,710, is that anything to write home about?  As the story mentions later, Youngstown has gained back 30% of the manufacturing jobs it has lost since the recession started in 2007.  In other words, the town would have lost 5,700 jobs since 2007, but has gained back 1,710 of them.  Still down 3,990.  Don't even think about the job losses prior to 2007.  Manufacturing jobs were getting murdered for three decades, but hey, we have a manufacturing renaissance in the past year and a half, as 30% of the jobs lost in the last 3 years or so have been brought back.  Excuse me while I go party.  So if the GM plant in Lordstown laid off 2,800 workers in 2007, but called back 840 of them, that means things are improving (they are, but from a tremendously low point)?  I think people are journalism majors because they just don't understand math.  This article in no way makes the point as to how far this region has been crushed.  It features one throwaway line about the preceding decades being an economic nightmare, but with zero numbers.  Thanks.  Just say, things are slightly better than they were at the worst point in nearly 80 years.

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