Sunday, January 1, 2012

Romney Leads In Iowa

Des Moines Register:
The Des Moines Register’s latest Iowa Poll shows a surprise three-way match-up in contention to win the Iowa Republican caucuses: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
Santorum, who has been largely invisible in the polls throughout the campaign season, is now beating the other evangelical choices and has a clear shot at victory Tuesday night.
But political analysts note there’s little time for Santorum to cash in and regroup before New Hampshire, where voters weigh in nine days from now, while Romney is positioned to replicate what he’s done in Iowa in all the early states.
In four days of polling, Romney leads at 24 percent, Paul has 22 percent and Rick Santorum, 15 percent.
But if the final two days of polling stand alone, the order reshuffles: Santorum elbows out Paul for second.
My prediction is that Romney will slowly gain momentum as the primary season goes on, and the Anybody but Mitt folks realize that he is their best bet to beat Obama.  Paul is just too far from the party mainstream, Huntsman has pissed off too much of the base, Gingrich has too many skeletons in the closet, Bachmann and Perry are just too dumb and lazy and Santorum has the personality of a rock.  The resistance of the base toward Romney will fade as his inevitability as nominee becomes clearer.  Winning Iowa will start that process.

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