USDA Prospective Plantings Preview

Progressive Farmer predicts the planting intentions report:

Corn: Pre-report estimates for prospective corn plantings came in at 94.7 million acres, up about 2.78 million acres from 2011. This number is an increase from USDA's baseline estimate of 94 ma released in February. Estimates stretch past 95.5 ma with few in the market thinking USDA will jump that far in its initial report. However, given the early planting and the tendency of the planter to keep rolling until the seed runs out, a June number over 95 ma is becoming more likely.

Soybeans: Pre-report estimates pegged soybean planted acreage at 75.5 ma, up slightly from 2010's and USDA's Outlook forum numbers of 75 ma. If the number comes in between 75.5 ma and 76.0 ma, the market may view it as bearish given the idea that beans failed to hold onto acres versus corn starting late last fall. On the other hand, the much-discussed 8 million extra acres over and above what was planted in 2011 would imply a stable to increased number in soybeans.

Wheat: All-wheat planted acres are expected to come in at 57.6 million, up from the 54.41 ma reported in 2011-2012. Year-to-year increases are expected to be seen in the three major classes of winter, spring and durum. However, the 57.6 ma is slightly below USDA's baseline figure of 58 ma. A possible surprise could come in spring wheat, with a loss to either corn or soybeans talked about as planting season gets an early start.

What the markets say: The strong carry in the new-crop December-to-March corn futures spread has long indicated a bearish prospective plantings number was likely, possibly more than 95 ma as opposed to the baseline estimate of 94 ma. Conversely, new-crop bean spreads are showing a strong inverse, implying less acreage will be planted, indicating a bullish surprise could be in the works. New-crop winter wheat spreads continue to show strong carry, maintaining a bearish outlook, while the carry in the September-to-December Minneapolis spring wheat spread is weaker, indicating a more bullish outlook.

Wow, over 95 million acres of corn is amazing.  Probably best to be short corn and long beans.  I won't be able to post in the morning when the report comes out (damn work), but I would expect this to roil the markets after 8:30.