Brazil's Second Crop Corn

Progressive Farmer:

Brazilian farmers have planted record amounts of second-crop corn this season and early indications point to a bumper crop.

With planting all but complete across the country's vast grain belt, crops are generally developing well as they enter the reproductive stages. The exception is Parana, the No. 2 winter corn state, but heavy rains are forecast to resolve the moisture deficit there during the next week.

"We could be looking at a massive crop this year as planted area has increased dramatically. But it's too early to affirm it will be a bumper season with any conviction as it's a very unpredictable crop," said Paulo Molinari, corn analyst at Safras e Mercado, a local farm consultancy.

Brazil's government and a number of international forecasters peg the winter crop at around 26 million metric tons (mmt), up 20% on the year before. But these forecasts underestimate the intensity of planting this season. A better number is around 28 mmt, according to respected local consultants Agroconsult and Safras e Mercado.

With summer-crop corn output pegged at 36 mmt to 36.5 mmt, there is a real possibility that Brazil's corn output will be greater than its drought-ravaged soybean crop this season. This is the first time that has happened since 1989.

It's hard to compete with folks planting second crop corn. With nearly 96 million acres of corn expected to be planted in the U.S., I don't thing we need large parts of Brazil seeding second crop corn.