I thought this note was very interesting:
There's a couple of points worth making here. I have a very rough rule of thumb -- now that we are on the oil plateau -- that if US consumption is increasing, oil prices are below the required level. US consumption must decrease overall to accomodate rising consumption in the developing world, and stagnant supply. Since the beginning of 2011, oil consumption has been decreasing, suggesting that oil prices are in roughly the right range.I think that is a good point.
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