Has The Barnett Shale Peaked?

Man, I'm going crazy with the question headlines tonight.  Anyway, Dave Summers questions the conventional wisdom about the shale gas boom:

Figure 3. Projected decline in Barnett shale production (assuming continued drilling). Note the steep decline rates for new wells.(Bureau of Economic Geology)  

Because of the current cooler weather in parts of the country, gas prices for September are down to $3.35/kcf.
This was one of two contributing factors to the problems that the domestic industry is undergoing, both foreseen by Art Berman, an accurate, albeit in some quarters very unpopular, prophet to the industry. The first problem, clearly is the low price that natural gas continues to sell at in most of the country. (The high prices in the NorthEast are because of the perception that the fuel is abundant, set against the current limited capacity of pipelines to carry sufficient gas into the region.) The second problem, which Art has also clearly identified, lies in the very rapid decline rates that are seen in the natural gas wells that have been drilled and fracked in these shales.
The Barnett shale has now been sufficiently well developed that production has now peaked and is recognized to now be in slow decline, though that rate is projected to accelerate. There is also sufficient information such that, for example such industrial stalwarts as the Oil and Gas Journal are confirming some of Art’s earlier predictions. A current article examines the economics of the Barnett shale development under DFW airport, first undertaken in 2009 following a lease agreement in 2006. The article examines the economics of the operation in which the airport has made over $300 million. Chesapeake, who have drilled 110 wells on the property, out of an anticipated 330 originally projected, has recovered some 104 bcf, but the undiscounted all-in cost is calculated at $7.21/kcf. While that was viable in 2008, when gas prices were north of $9.00/kcf it becomes quite a burden when they are down around $3.35/kcf. The loss to the operator is reported to be more than $300 million.

The next 18 months or so are going to be really interesting for the shale plays.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a production peak in the Bakken in that time.  If that happens, a lot of people are going to realize that we're going to have to change how we do things.  If it doesn't, I'll look like Chicken Little.  I really think the producers are hitting the best places first, and they'll struggle after those start declining.  Only time will tell.