Thursday, October 24, 2013

Why We Need Higher Marginal Rates

The Guardian:
In the United States, the share of total pre-tax income accruing to the top 1% has more than doubled, from less than 10% in the 1970s to over 20% today (pdf). A similar pattern is true of other English-speaking countries. Contrary to the widely-held view, however, globalisation and new technologies are not to blame. Other OECD countries, such as those in continental Europe, or Japan have seen far less concentration of income among the mega rich.
At the same time, top income tax rates on upper income earners have declined significantly since the 1970s in many OECD countries – again, particularly in English-speaking ones. For example, top marginal income tax rates in the United States or the United Kingdom were above 70% in the 1970s, before the Reagan and Thatcher revolutions drastically cut them by 40 percentage points within a decade.
At a time when most OECD countries face large deficits and debt burdens, a crucial public policy question is whether governments should tax high earners more. The potential tax revenue at stake is now very large.
For example, doubling the average US individual income tax rate on the top 1% income earners from the current 22.5% level to 45% would increase tax revenue by 2.7% of GDP per year – as much as letting all of the Bush tax cuts expire (only a small fraction of them lapsed in January 2013). But of course, this simple calculation is static: such a large increase in taxes may well affect the economic behaviour of the rich and the income they report pre-tax, the broader economy and, ultimately, the tax revenue generated. In recent research, we analyse this issue both conceptually and empirically using international evidence on top incomes and top tax rates since the 1970s.
There is a strong correlation between the reductions in top tax rates and the increases in top 1% pre-tax income shares, for the period from 1975-79 to 2004-08, across 18 OECD countries for which top income share information is available. For example, the United States experienced a 35 percentage-point reduction in its top income tax rate and a very large ten percentage-point increase in its top 1% pre-tax income share. By contrast, France or Germany saw very little change in their top tax rates and their top 1% income shares during the same period.
I was just trying to make this point on Tuesday night to a couple of Tea Party Libertarian types I went to high school with.  They looked at me like I had 3 heads.  To me, it makes pretty damn good sense, but it seems most folks around here just think it is the worst idea in the world.  My point is that if something doesn't change, the so-called defenders of Capitalism will end up being its destroyers.  With widening inequality, somethings gotta give.  I'd much rather it be low tax rates on top incomes that go away than society as we know it.

2 comments:

  1. Thought you might appreciate this.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/the-barack-obama-big-spender-myth-1.2251993

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  2. Thanks for the link. It is a pretty good indicator of how well certain ideas gain strength without a basis of facts. I'm typically pretty conservative, but the Republican insistence on cutting taxes ALWAYS drives me insane. Any deal on deficit cutting has to have new revenues.

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