Why Democrats Face Rough Going in Fall Elections

Frank Rich:

The Democrats are in deep trouble this fall, but not because of any reading of the tea leaves in this single district, and not because the entire country hates Obamacare. The fundamentals are far more basic. As in 2010, the year of the Democrats’ shellacking, older white voters are more likely to go to the polls than young and minority voters. Part of that is structural: There’s not the excitement of a presidential race (let alone one with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket) to motivate Democrats to show up. And it gets worse: The new Wall Street Journal—NBC News poll this week finds that not only is Obama’s approval rating at a new low (41 percent), but that his disapproval rating among Democrats is up to 20 percent. Thus, Democrats may be even less motivated to go to the polls than they were in 2010. And Republicans — who do hate Obamacare, or, to put a finer point on it, hate Obama — are highly motivated. There’s a lot of talk among Democrats about what message they might come up with to reverse these fundamentals, but I have my doubts there’s any panacea. Perhaps the most optimistic way for a Democrat to look at 2014 is that if it’s a rout, it sets up the Republicans to indulge in overconfidence and other forms of self-destructive hubris in 2016, just as they did in 2012 after their success of 2010.

I really agree with the analysis here.  If you take a look at the election results of 2010, you'll see Republicans winning a lot of seats by not many votes.  For instance, John Kasich won slightly in a year when turnout was significantly down in big cities.  If voters turned out in those areas in 2010 (or 2014) like they did in 2008 or 2012, Ted Strickland is our governor.  Likewise in a number of congressional races that year.  The Democrats' biggest weakness is the apathy of their voters.  And Republicans know this.  That's why they use every trick they can to make it difficult for those voters to cast ballots, whether it is ID requirements, shorter hours for early voting,  fewer polling places in poor areas or relocating polling places.  Whatever they can do to get fewer people to show up is beneficial to them.  I honestly think that is one reason why they govern so fabulously shitty when they get the chance.  It just turns off people from voting.  Except for the elderly folks who vote Republican.  That's also why any Republican plan to fuck with Social Security and Medicare doesn't mess with anybody already in the programs.