Monday, April 25, 2011

Suburban Growth and Peak Oil = Serious Economic Problems

Yglesias:
Everywhere you look, the short-term price elasticity of demand for gasoline is low. People basically own the cars they own, they live where they live, and they work where they work. So when gas prices get more expensive, spending on gasoline booms. With households credit-constrained, that means huge cutbacks in spending on things that aren’t gasoline. That becomes a huge hit to aggregate demand, and a big drag on our economy.
But while gasoline consumption isn’t very price sensitive in the short-run, longer term factors about taxation, housing policy and transportation policy play a big role in this process. In Europe, a smaller share of the population drives to work. And they drive lighter, more fuel efficient cars. And they commute shorter distances. Consequently, their economy is less vulnerable to this kind of shock. The only real security for America in the long-run is that kind of transformation to an economy less driven by the assumption that gasoline will always and forever be cheap.
If oil production levels off and starts to decline, our 60 year investment in a suburban "American Dream" will become an anchor around our necks.  Continued sprawl development, doesn't look very wise right now, peak production or not.  If we do see peak oil, I bet we'll get a lot more exercise in the future.

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