Tuesday, July 5, 2011

More Immigrants = Less Crime

Richard Florida:
But the key factor, as it turns out, lies in the growing racial, ethnic, and demographic diversity of our cities and metro areas. Our analysis found that the Hispanic share of the population is negatively associated with urban crime. Crime also fell as the percentage of the population that is non-white and the percentage that is gay increased. And of all the variables in our analysis, the one that is most consistently negatively associated with crime is a place's percentage of foreign-born residents. Not only did we find a negative correlation (-.36) between foreign-born share and crime in general, the pattern held across all of the many, various types of crime - from murder and arson to burglary and car theft.
The Brookings study also finds evidence of a substantial shift in the connection between foreign-born residents and crime. While foreign-born share was positively associated with crime in 1990 and 2000, that relationship had disappeared by 2008. The foreign-born share of population now shows no relationship to property crime, and a negative relationship to violent crime. The pattern is most pronounced for primary cities and inner-ring suburbs, the Brookings study found, but not for lower-density suburbs and ex-urbs.
It might be hard to wrap your mind around this--especially with all the demagoguery about immigration. But the numbers tell a different story than our alarmist pundits and politicians do. "Since 1990, all types of communities within the country's largest metro areas have become more diverse," Elizabeth Kneebone, one of the authors of the Brookings report, wrote in The New Republic. "Crime fell fastest in big cities and high-density suburbs that were poorer, more minority, and had higher crime rates to begin with. At the same time, all kinds of suburbs saw their share of poor, minority, and foreign-born residents increase. As suburbia diversified, crime rates fell." Along with their entrepreneurial energy and their zeal to succeed, immigrants are good neighbors--cultural and economic factors that militate against criminal behavior, and not just in their own enclaves but in surrounding communities as well.
That correlation holds up here.  I think it makes sense that immigrants, especially illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes, because they can be deported.  They have a large incentive to avoid criminality.  I would also say that Hispanic culture, with an emphasis on family and community may also help in that.  I would go further in saying that the immigrants are also likely to settle in areas with better economies, although their presence in said economies would provide a positive feedback loop.  The demographic growth provided by the immigrants causes those economies to flourish more.  It may be that low levels of immigration into a region demonstrates that the regional economy is struggling, which leads to more crime compared to the areas with more immigration.  I am discouraged by attempts by Ohio officials, mainly Republican, who want to vilify illegal immigrants.  While it would be nice if we could give them papers before they come, their presence is good for our region.  Their absence is not a good thing.

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