Monday, July 18, 2011

Mr. Obvious Headline of the Day

Scientific American, via Mark Thoma, the Headline:

Compulsive Gamblers Combine Impulsiveness With Irrationality:
Compulsive gambling is marked by poor impulse control. Where a non-gambler fears to tread, the compulsive gambler may rush in. Bet on the Mets to sweep a doubleheader against the Phillies with two kids brought up from AA pitching against Halliday and Lee? Seems like a great idea!

Now a study of British gamblers finds that the ones who were the most impulsive were also way more likely to reason incorrectly. For example, they put more stock in superstition, like rituals or carrying a lucky coin. Or they’ll believe more fervently that they got a slot machine that had simply gone cold, offering them no chance to win. Thereby discounting the actual laws of probability that govern their alleged luck.
I would think that is pretty much a given.  Anybody who thinks they are going to beat the house with the odds against them is probably superstitious, and anybody placing large bets at the casino is probably impulsive.

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