Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Do We Need More Alaskan Oil Production?

According to Jim Brown, the answer is yes, but not for the reasons I would guess (via James Hamilton):
If new drilling in Alaska is not approved soon the Alaska pipeline will have to shutdown and the remaining oil in the National Petroleum Reserve will be lost. I have written about this several times but new information just appeared in a new article on ASPOUSA.ORG. First some background. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) was built between 1974-1977 to deliver oil from the North Slope to the closest ice free port of Valdez in southern Alaska. The pipeline is just over 800 miles long and it has delivered more than 16 billion barrels of oil since it was completed. At any given time there are nine million barrels of oil in the pipeline and it takes an average of 14 days for a barrel of oil to flow from start to finish.
The peak flow rate was 2.145 mbpd in January 1988. Since then the decline has been steady and dramatic as the production from the North Slope fields declines. The average flow in July was 459,376 bpd. That compares to the average over the past year of 572,835 bpd.
As I have reported before the problem facing the pipeline system is the declining flows. Below a certain flow rate the pipeline will become inoperable due to a number of factors. Those factors include ice buildup, wax buildup and clogging of valves and systems.
Oil comes out of the ground hot and enters the pipeline at roughly 145 degrees when it was flowing at full capacity because the transit time was shorter. The volume of hot oil moving through the pipe kept the pipe warm for a longer distance. The oil would exit the pipe in Valdez at 56 degrees. The pipes are insulated to protect the oil from the sub zero temperatures and to protect the permafrost from the heat of the oil.
That is interesting to me.  It demonstrates how big of a pain in the ass it is to extract oil from Alaska.  It also gives a good indication of the effects of peak oil production on an existing oil field.  2.1 million barrels per day down to 460,000 bpd is pretty significant decline.  I guess maybe they ought to tap ANWR, then when that field declines, we can ignore the state forever, and quit spending so much federal money there.

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