Thursday, December 15, 2011

A Farmland Bubble?

The Wall Street Journal notices that real estate prices in flyover country have spiked significantly (h/t Ritholtz):
Farmers like Terry Pratt are a big reason Midwest farmland prices seem to be defying gravity—for now. Inside the tidy red-brick community center here, a hushed crowd of town merchants and growers watched as two of their own bid against each other at an auction for 50 acres of corn and soybean land.
Unfortunately, the rest of the story is behind their paywall.  To me, the ag real estate market has a real bubble feel to it.  But we won't know what the story is until we see whether Chinese middle-class creation is for real.  Unfortunately, I think most of the farmers have bought into the Chinese demand growth story, and don't anticipate prices going down much ever.  I think we're being set up for a really bad year soon.  Input costs are crazy high, and if crop prices collapse, we're going to be in a world of hurt.  Hopefully it won't come to that, but I'm trying to prepare for the possibility.

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