The Sensible Republican's Dilemma

George Packer:

This year is the Republicans’ 1972—or it could be, if they get lucky. Not because they’ll lose the Presidency by the same huge margin as those Democrats—they might well win—but because they’ve reached the same stage of petrified theology, capture by their extremes, and self-isolation from their old majority. After 2008, the Republicans changed their rules to create more competition, with fewer winner-take-all primaries, and now they’re facing the prospect of an ugly dogfight lasting weeks or months more. Mitt Romney, the party establishment’s last, best hope, is even less loved by the activists at the base than Humphrey, Muskie, and Jackson were. Newt Gingrich is the party’s unlikely insurgent—as unlikable as McGovern was decent, but, as the last remaining surrogate for what they really want, the object of a willed passion on the part of true believers, and just as erratic in the chaos of his campaign.

To be a sane Republican today is to hope that Romney can hang on in Florida and beyond. Not simply because he’s the most “electable” candidate—parties make a mistake when they choose based on assumptions about what other people think (remember the Democrats in 2004). A sane Republican has to want Romney as nominee in order to rule out any possibility of having Gingrich as President.

But what if Romney wins the nomination and loses the election?

It is a scary conundrum for somebody who isn't a Kool-Aid drinker.  I don't think the base will be swayed either way.  They truly believe the crap that is being sold to them on Rush Limbaugh and Fox News.  The only hope for the reasonable person is for the crazy folks to go off on their own, but then the moderate Republicans have to count on luring moderate Democrats into their camp to have any chance at winning election.  The recent gerrymandering is going to leave the crazies in charge in Ohio and other states.  The only hope is for the Republican party to destroy itself and for the moderates to fill in the gaping void.  I wouldn't hold my breath.  Instead, I expect a lot of gridlock as the crazies slowly lose support, and try to drag the rest of the country into their make-believe world.