We can anticipate disruptive events, as they come along all too frequently in history. Consider the following list, via Doug Kass of those 100-year flood/once in a lifetime events. These occur far more regularly than most people believe: >This is something very important to remember. Also remember that because a rare event occurs, it doesn't mean that it won't reoccur soon.
Black Swan events over the past decadeDo you have an emergency plan ready for when things get dicey . . . ?
• Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon;
• 78% decline in the Nasdaq;
• 2003 European heat wave (40,000 deaths);
• 2004 Tsunami in Sumatra, Indonesia (230,000 deaths);
• 2005 Kashmir, Pakistan, earthquake (80,000 deaths)
• 2008 Myanmar cyclone (140,000 deaths);
• 2008 Sichuan, China, earthquake ( 68,000 deaths);
• Derivatives roil the world’s banking system and financial markets;
• Failure of Lehman Brothers and the sale/liquidation of Bear Stearns;
• 30% drop in U.S. home prices;
• 2010 Port-Au-Prince, Haiti, earthquake (315,000 deaths);
• 2010 Russian heat wave (56,000 deaths);
• 2010 BP’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill;
• 2010 market flash crash (a 1,000-point drop in the DJIA);
• Surge of unrest in the Middle East; and
• Thursday’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
Why not?
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Quite the List
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Doing some research for school, I was surprised to discover a significant decrease in the yearly death toll from natural disasters (considered weather events, geological events, and the disease stemming from the disaster but not including infectious diseases not stemming from the disaster). Prior to 1950, the average yearly death toll from natural disasters was significantly greater than one million; after 1950 the number lowered to a few hundred thousand. With the population of the Earth surging to six billion in the same time span, the probability of dying from a natural disaster is very low. However, probability is not solace to the survivors of a disaster.
ReplyDeleteThat is true. The number of deaths caused by war or genocide is much smaller too, post WWII. But the numbers in other events worldwide dwarf September 11 and Katrina. In our U.S. centric world view, those were extremely significant. Based on population though, civilian casualties in Iraq from 2003-2007 were massive compared to the terrorist attacks in the U.S., but we have a hard time noticing.
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