Ritholtz:
Fascinating chart above via David Wilson of Bloomberg.
It very much suggests that while Speculators may not have been the prime mover on the 2008 Oil peak, the specs seem to be a very large portion of the current push.
By comparing the net number of contracts owned by non-commercial oil traders (Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission).
Crude 5.8% the first two days of this week, suggested that speculative demand for oil may be declining.
I can't really go into depth about the markets, but I think the funds were plowing into commodities to take a ride based on fear of QE2. Since the money is sitting at banks, I would say a lot of the movement is speculation of coming inflation actually creating said inflation in commodity markets. I would bet that any credit crunch will crush commodity markets just like it did in 2008, when oil plunged back down under $40 for a little while.
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