Obama vs. Ryan

Andrew Sullivan quotes from the news that Obama will be releasing his own budget plan soon, focusing on raising taxes on the rich and making smaller changes to Medicare and education programs, and follows with this analysis:

And so Obama starts off this critical part of his first term by appearing to be above the fray and yet committed to compromise. Via Biden, he calls the GOP's bluff, draws a line in spending cuts for 2011, and exposes the draconian spending reductions that the GOP's no tax increase pledge requires. He comes back with a bid to tax millionaires, offers spending cuts that would be far more sophisticated and targeted away from investment than the GOP, and pledges to put his own proposals forward as early as this week.
Of course, for a blogger like me, you face a choice. Simply trust the guy and spin for him, or voice skepticism, outrage and disappointment and get played along with the GOP. But, of course, I don't mind getting played. Because I want this president to succeed - and such success requires root-and-branch spending and tax reform.
He seems to be getting there - in that highly unsatisfying but politically shrewd way of his. So now we will have the Ryan plan and the Obama plan. Guess which one independent voters will like more?

Even though I didn't share Sullivan's admiration for the "courage" of Paul Ryan's budget plan, I do agree with him here.  Obama appears to have gotten rolled on every issue since the November elections, giving in to the Republicans on the Bush tax cuts, on payroll tax cuts and on the recent 2011 budget negotiations/hostage crisis.  But he let Paul Ryan roll out his absolutely awful, Bizarro World Robin Hood (screw the poor and give to the rich) 2012 budget last week, sat back while all the sociopaths in D.C. talked about how bold it was, let the analysts dig into the numbers and find out it doesn't add up, then he'll roll out his own plan with valid numbers and a return to Clinton-era tax rates.  This will once again show the President as much more reasonable than the Republicans, even though most of the people in Western Ohio will believe it shows how ignorant he is.  You'll get that.  It will help the president with more reasonable people in the more-populated areas, which is where it counts.

Yet I have my reservations about the future.

A lot of people will point to the late 90's and say that the we'll return to some golden economic era.  I disagree.  I think the 90's, like all "prosperity" we've seen since the end of the Carter presidency, was fueled by borrowed money and productivity gains from the integration of technology, along with lower oil prices after the end of the embargo.  Since the tech bubble burst and China roared back from the 1998 Asian crisis, we have seen the limitations of our ability to sustain economic growth, especially with the addition of the "War on Terror" and actual wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a partial war now in Libya.  We've positioned ourselves into a spot where we will face a real decrease in standard of living, barring a technological miracle.  Yet, we still can't prepare ourselves for actual sacrifice.  Obama will most likely take a step in the right direction, but it still won't be large enough.  The nice thing is that it actually is in the right direction.  Republicans, meanwhile, always direct us the wrong way.

We as a people face some stark choices.  We can start making some real sacrifices, or we can slowly (or much faster if we choose to follow the Republicans) march closer and closer to the precipice.  At this point in our public conscience, Jimmy Carter is looked on as a failure as President.  But as we face the challenges ahead of us, we will need to follow many of his recommendations from his "Malaise Speech," becoming more energy-efficient, more humble, and making some real sacrifices.  If these efforts were made when he recommended them, we would be a lot better off now. 

Instead, we avoided facing a more sustainable energy future, and made grave choices which will make things even more difficult.  The vast number of buildings constructed since 1980 have produced unprecedented sprawl, much greater dependence on automobile travel, much larger homes which we heat and cool, vast amounts of debt, and tremendous poverty and crime which we abandoned in our inner cities.

Now we face energy and climate challenges, enormous debt problems, a struggling economy, and have no real way to easily go forward to address them.  Along with that, we've fostered and developed an every man for himself attitude which will make addressing these problems even tougher.  The policy choices made since 1980 have weakened and indebted the middle class, built up resentments amongst the lower 80% of the income distribution, and enriched and strengthened those at the top. 

The size of the challenges we face will require that all people make some sacrifices, but those who have the most will have to give the most.  Unfortunately, they don't see it that way, and they have spent the last 30 years strengthening themselves at the expense of everyone else.  To peacefully convince them to participate in the sacrifice will take unity among everyone else, yet in the last 30 years, the people in charge have sown tremendous dissension and disunity amongst the lower and middle classes.  It is time to unite, face our real challenges and move forward.  It will be painful, but it will lead to real rewards.  Look in the mirror, ask yourself what you can do, and get involved.  It is not too late, but it is close.