Wired:
On Monday, the U.S. Navy will officially announce the ships for its
demonstration of the “Great Green Fleet” — an entire aircraft carrier
strike group powered by biofuels and other eco-friendly energy sources.
If a powerful congressional panel has its way, it could the last time
the Navy ever uses biofuels to run its ships and jets.
In its report on next year’s Pentagon budget, the House Armed
Services Committee banned the Defense Department from making or buying
an alternative fuel that costs more than a “traditional fossil fuel.”
It’s a standard that may be almost impossible to meet, energy experts
believe; there’s almost no way the tiny, experimental biofuel industry
can hope to compete on price with the massive, century-old fossil fuels
business.
Committee Republicans, like Rep. Randy Forbes, insist this isn’t an
attempt to kill off military biofuels before they have a chance to
start. “Now, look, I love green energy,” he said in February. “It’s a
matter of priorities.”
But if the measure becomes law, it would make it
all-but-inconceivable for the Pentagon to buy the renewable fuels. It
would likely scuttle one of the top priorities of Navy Secretary Ray
Mabus. And it might very well suffocate the gasping biofuel industry,
which was looking to the Pentagon to help it survive.
“We’d be years behind if it wasn’t for the military,” said Tom
Todaro, a leading biofuel entrepreneur whose companies have supplied the
military with tens of thousands of gallons of fuel made from mustard seeds.
Look, I think biofuels are in general a boondoggle, but wtf? Have Congressional Republicans heard of our nuclear powered fleet? Here is the CBO on the relative costs of
nuclear versus petroleum:
Estimates of the relative costs of using nuclear power versus
conventional fuels for ships depend in large part on the projected path
of oil prices, which determine how much the Navy must pay for fuel in
the future. The initial costs for building and fueling a nuclear-powered
ship are greater than those for building a conventionally powered ship.
However, once the Navy has acquired a nuclear ship, it incurs no
further costs for fuel. If oil prices rose substantially in the future,
the estimated savings in fuel costs from using nuclear power over a
ship's lifetime could offset the higher initial costs to procure the
ship. In recent years, oil prices have shown considerable volatility;
for example, the average price of all crude oil delivered to U.S.
refiners peaked at about $130 per barrel in June and July 2008, then
declined substantially, and has risen significantly again, to more than
$100 per barrel in March of this year.
CBO regularly projects oil prices for 10-year periods as part of the
macroeconomic forecast that underlies the baseline budget projections
that the agency publishes each year. In its January 2011 macroeconomic
projections, CBO estimated that oil prices would average $86 per barrel
in 2011 and over the next decade would grow at an average rate of about 1
percentage point per year above the rate of general inflation, reaching
$95 per barrel (in 2011 dollars) by 2021. After 2021, CBO assumes, the
price will continue to grow at a rate of 1 percentage point above
inflation, reaching $114 per barrel (in 2011 dollars) by 2040. If oil
prices followed that trajecto ry, total life-cycle costs for a nuclear
fleet would be 19 percent higher than those for a conventional fleet, in
CBO's estimation. Specifically, total life-cycle costs would be 19
percent higher for a fleet of nuclear destroyers, 4 percent higher for a
fleet of nuclear LH(X) amphibious assault ships, and 33 percent higher
for a fleet of nuclear LSD(X) amphibious dock landing ships.
I would assume the costs are similar for aircraft carriers and submarines. So does this prevent the Navy from building ships whose upfront costs for construction and fueling are higher than fossil fuels? Besides, one of the few benefits of our crazy defense spending is that some defense and space research ends up becoming commercially useful for civilian life. For example, GPS, the internet and Tang. Despite the quasi-religious beliefs of Republicans, biofuels might be another instance of that phenomenon.
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