Saturday, May 28, 2011

Should You Bet Against China?

Stephen Roach says no (h/t Mark Thoma):
Yale historian Jonathan Spence has long cautioned that the West tends to view China through the same lens as it sees itself. Today’s cottage industry of China doubters is a case in point. Yes, by our standards, China’s imbalances are unstable and unsustainable.  Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has, in fact, gone public with a similar critique.
But that’s why China is so different.  It actually takes these concerns seriously.  Unlike the West, where the very concept of strategy has become an oxymoron, China has embraced a transitional framework aimed at resolving its sustainability constraints. Moreover, unlike the West, which is trapped in a dysfunctional political quagmire, China has both the commitment and the wherewithal to deliver on that strategy. This is not a time to bet against China.
I find China to be a very interesting place.  I wonder about all the empty buildings and wonder if things are going to come apart, but I don't really know anything about the place.  There are a lot of things about China that seem very dangerous financially, but it is also such a big, and still poor place.  They can build tons of buildings, and yet still fill them up eventually.  I tend to think that the Communist party bureaucrats will eventually screw up the economy, but I've been wrong so far.

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